| 摘要: | 近年行為經濟學在學術研究上備受重視，與過去傳統經濟學的假設有所不同，其認為有限理性因素可能會影響決策行為。而過去之消費者購屋研究很少考慮有限理性因素。近年來，臺灣的預售屋市場經歷了顯著之成長及普及，成為消費者購房的熱門選擇。預售方式允許開發商提前獲得部份建設資金，從而降低房屋滯銷之風險；同時，買家也可以分期支付頭期款，減少付款壓力。然而，預售屋為非實體商品交易，經常存在資訊不對稱（Asymmetric Information）問題，可能導致市場失靈及交易效率的降低。因此，相較於成屋及二手屋，預售屋存在更高之不確定性及風險，並具有競爭性，這使得消費者在購買決策時可能更容易做出有限理性的選擇。
本研究將從消費者的預售屋購買決策中納入從眾行為及損失厭惡作為重要指標，以釐清市場上是否存在這些現象，並根據過往文獻將害怕錯過作為介導從眾行為與損失厭惡對購買決策之中介變量，以不同角度觀察預售屋市場是否存在有限理性因素影響購買決策之情況。
本研究問卷調查對象為曾經購買過新北市預售屋之民眾，並於2024年2月20日至2024年3月3日發放問卷，有效問卷為420份，並使用SPSS及結構方程模型（SEM）進行分析，實證結果顯示，害怕錯過在從眾行為與購買決策間存在中介作用、害怕錯過在損失厭惡與購買決策間存在中介作用及害怕錯過顯著直接影響購買決策。研究結果將拓展行為經濟學在不動產領域之應用範圍。除能給消費者一決策依據外，並幫助開發商及代銷業者更深入理解消費者之心理需求及行為模式，使其能提供相應之行銷策略。
In recent years, behavioral economics has garnered significant attention in academic research, differing from traditional economic assumptions by recognizing that non-rational factors may influence decision-making behavior. Past studies on consumer housing purchases have rarely considered these non-rational factors. Recently, Taiwan's pre-sale housing market has experienced significant growth and popularity, becoming a favored choice for homebuyers. The pre-sale method allows developers to obtain part of the construction funds in advance, thereby reducing the risk of unsold homes, while buyers can pay the down payment in installments, reducing financial pressure. However, pre-sale homes are non-physical product transactions and often present issues of asymmetric information, potentially leading to market failures and reduced transaction efficiency. Therefore, compared to completed and second-hand homes, pre-sale homes have higher uncertainty and risks, making consumers more prone to irrational choices in their purchasing decisions.
This study incorporates herding behavior and loss aversion as key indicators in the pre-sale home purchasing decisions of consumers to clarify whether these phenomena exist in the market. Based on previous literature, fear of missing out (FOMO) is used as a mediating variable between herding behavior, loss aversion, and purchasing decisions, observing from different perspectives whether irrational factors influence purchasing decisions in the pre-sale housing market.
The survey targets individuals who have purchased pre-sale homes in New Taipei City, with questionnaires distributed from February 20, 2024, to March 3, 2024. A total of 420 valid responses were collected and analyzed using SPSS and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The empirical results show that fear of missing out mediates the relationship between herding behavior and purchasing decisions, as well as between loss aversion and purchasing decisions, and has a significant direct impact on purchasing decisions. The findings will expand the application scope of behavioral economics in the real estate field, providing consumers with a basis for decision-making, and helping developers and sales agents gain a deeper understanding of consumers' psychological needs and behavior patterns to offer corresponding marketing strategies. |
