「一個中國」意涵的思辨- 美中台領導人在兩岸關係講詞中的語意分析

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Title:	「一個中國」意涵的思辨- 美中台領導人在兩岸關係講詞中的語意分析 The Meaning of "One China" - A Semantic Network Analysis of the US-China-Taiwan Leaders' Speeches on Cross-Strait Relations
Authors:	蔡芳旻
Contributors:	政治學系
Keywords:	美中台關係內容分析一個中國政策一個中國原則地緣政治 U.S.-China-Taiwan relations Text analysis One-China Policy One-China Principle Geopolitics
Date:	2023
Issue Date:	2024-03-14 15:54:00 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本論文旨在探討「一個中國」意涵變化，作為探討美中台之間國際政治因素對於「一個中國」的語義變化，本論文採用質性研究的紮根理論及社會網絡分析技術來詮釋美中台領導人的講詞，期能藉由各國領袖的演講文本發現其語意上的組成方式與戰略意涵。對於「一個中國意涵」的文獻討論，本論文歸納為三種類型：第一、「一個中國」是各自表述的概念；第二、「一個中國」是指台灣必須被中國統一；第三、「一個中國」是指兩岸可以和平共處。基於以上三種類型，本論文從相關文獻發現「一個中國」的兩岸論述會因為1.國際經濟因素、2.地緣政治因素，及 3.個人意識形態因素這三種概念影響其內涵的變化。為釐清上述各自詮釋方式的不同，卻仍然必須環繞在「美中三大建交公報」及「台灣關係法」的核心約束之文獻探討的結果，論文採用2015以美中台三地領導人共計21次會議，總計42篇的發言文本做為語義分析的文本內容，在方法上採用紮根理論、語義分析、社會網絡分析法，透過Nvivo文字分析的自動編碼與人工編碼交互運用，以期發現發言論述中對於「一個中國」論述變化的政策意涵。本論文的研究結果如下：第一、在不同時間點上，不同領導人對於「一個中國」的論述確實受到地緣政治、國際政治經濟情勢和個人風格的影響，而有不同語意上的組成結構，其中又以地緣政治的情勢關係最為明顯；第二、各領導人講詞中關於「一個中國」內涵的解釋中，仍依循各自過往的立場與態度並無覆性的突破；第三、經由此紮根理論的語意分析方法，本論文發現，在不同領導人與時間交叉的比較變項之下雖仍有不同的語意組成結構，但是在領導人發言關於「一個中國」內涵的變化之中，仍離不開建交公報、上海公報等美中三大公報的解讀與詮釋方式。 This thesis explores the changing meaning of the "One China" concept. To understand the impact of international political factors on the meaning of "One China" between the United States, China, and Taiwan, this thesis uses grounded theory and social network analysis to interpret the speeches of leaders. This thesis divides the literature on the meaning of "One China" into three categories："One China" is a matter of interpretation；"One China" means that Taiwan must be unified with China；"One China" means that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can coexist peacefully. Based on these three categories, this thesis finds that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait's discourse on "One China" is influenced by three factors：1.International economic factors；2.Geopolitical factors；3.Personal ideological factors. To clarify the differences in the interpretations of "One China," this thesis uses the speech texts of the leaders of the United States, China, and Taiwan from 2015 to 2023 to conduct semantic analysis. The thesis uses grounded theory, semantic analysis, and social network analysis to identify the policy implications of the changes in the "One China" discourse in the speeches. The results of this thesis are as follows： First, at different time points, the discourse of "One China" by different leaders is indeed affected by geopolitical, international political-economic situation, and personal style, and has different semantic structures, among which the relationship of geopolitical situation is the most obvious. Second, in the interpretation of the meaning of "One China" in the speeches of each leader, there is no breakthrough in following their own past positions and attitudes. Third, through the grounded theory of semantic analysis, this thesis found the interpretation and interpretation of the three major U.S.-China joint communiqués, such as the Shanghai Communiqué, in the change of the meaning of "One China" in the speeches of leaders cannot be separated.
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