習近平時期對臺政策（2012～2022）： 以歷史制度論分析

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题名:	習近平時期對臺政策（2012～2022）：以歷史制度論分析 Xi Jinping's Policy on Taiwan(2012~2022): The analysis of Historical Institutional Theory
作者:	葉聖平
贡献者:	國家發展與中國大陸研究所中國大陸組
关键词:	歷史制度論習近平時期習五點臺獨九二共識 Historical Institutional Theory Xi Jinping period Xi's five points Taiwan independence 1992 Consensus
日期:	2023
上传时间:	2024-03-14 10:52:13 (UTC+8)
摘要:	「中國共產黨」是中國大陸規模最龐大、最具有權威的政治組織，同時是美中臺三角關係中的關鍵角色。因此，研究中共對臺政策不僅具備現實意義，更主要的就是藉由理論作為解釋依據，觀察兩岸互動時能產生系統性的分析與判斷。中共對臺政策有時期上的劃分，依據不同情勢會有所調整，從一開始的「武力解放」到「和平解放」，再到「和平統一」時期。這個過程中有現實條件變化，觸動制度發生變化或著是手段形成多樣並混和。每個時期都會有特色，但是也具備政策的依賴路徑，從毛澤東、鄧小平、江澤民到胡錦濤等時期就能發這些綱領性的原則內容，不僅有延續也有變遷。中共對臺政策是長時間政治現象，是複雜且縝密的建構過程。2019年1月2日，習近平總書記在《告臺灣同胞書》四十周年上的講話，象徵中國大陸解決臺灣問題的觀念進入一個新時代，因此從此來看，這個複雜的政治過程有萌芽、建立、反饋到制度形成的過程與循環在不斷發生，例如「融合發展」、「一國兩制，臺灣方案」等原創性提出，還有後續的第三份對臺政策白皮書《臺灣問題與新時代中國統一事業》和中共二十大的「新時代黨解決臺灣問題的總體方略」，以上都是觀察這個政治過程缺一不可的關鍵要點。本文的研究動機在於(一)將理論與現實相結合(二)從歷史維度中思考習近平時期的對臺政策；本文的研究主要目的；(一)透過歷史制度論分析習近平對臺工作的脈絡與原則(二)找出習近平與大陸過去領導人對臺政策的特點(三)探討習近平時期大陸對臺政策(四)了解新制度主義內容及如何分析大陸對臺政策。本文採取歷史制度論作為途徑。歷史研究法與內容分析法作為研究方法，分析習近平時期的大陸對臺政策，與以往時期的延續與變遷。 The "Communist Party of China" is the largest and most authoritative political organization in mainland China. It is also a key player in the triangular relationship between the United States, China and Taiwan. Therefore, studying the CCP's Taiwan policy not only has practical significance, but more importantly, it uses theory as an explanation basis to produce systematic analysis and judgment when observing cross-strait interactions. The CCP's Taiwan policy is divided into periods, and will be adjusted according to different situations, from the initial period of "forced liberation" to "peaceful liberation" and then to the period of "peaceful reunification". In this process, there are changes in actual conditions, which trigger changes in the system or diversify and mix the means. Each period has its own characteristics, but it also has its own policy dependence path. From Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao and other periods, these programmatic principles and contents have not only continued but also changed. The CCP’s Taiwan policy is a long-term political phenomenon and a complex and meticulous construction process. On January 2, 2019, General Secretary Xi Jinping’s speech at the 40th anniversary of the “Letter to Compatriots in Taiwan” symbolized that mainland China’s concept of solving the Taiwan issue has entered a new era. Therefore, from this point of view, this complex political process has sprouts and The process and cycle of establishment and feedback to system formation are constantly taking place, such as "integrated development", "one country, two systems, Taiwan plan" and other original proposals, as well as the subsequent third white paper on Taiwan policy "Taiwan Issue and China's Unification in the New Era" Cause" and "The Party's Overall Strategy for Solving the Taiwan Issue in the New Era" of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The above are all key points that are indispensable for observing this political process. The motivation for this article's research is to (1) combine theory with reality; (2) think about Xi Jinping's Taiwan policy from a historical dimension; the main purpose of this article's research; (1) analyze the context of Xi Jinping's work on Taiwan through historical institutional theory and principles (2) Find out the characteristics of Xi Jinping and mainland China’s past leaders’ policies towards Taiwan (3) Explore mainland China’s Taiwan policy during Xi Jinping’s period (4) Understand the content of new institutionalism and how to analyze mainland China’s policy towards Taiwan. This article adopts historical institutional theory as an approach. Historical research method and content analysis method are used as research methods to analyze the mainland's Taiwan policy during Xi Jinping's period and its continuation and changes with previous periods.
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