近年來為了提升交易資訊透明度，法人說明會扮演著企業與外部投資者間主要溝通媒介，本研究透過資料蒐集，用以探討法人說明會資訊揭露程度對未來盈餘預測之影響，接著採用T檢定進行變數篩選，並透過決策樹分析後，得到5個重要變數，以瞭解何種型態之資訊對於未來盈餘之預測具有重大影響力，並歸納出8條判斷規則。
本實證結果發現，法人說明會資訊揭露程度對未來盈餘預測將會產生影響，亦即法人說明會所揭露之資訊不僅展示公司過去營運狀況與財務績效，更重要為發布了公司未來營運方向，以讓投資者更加了解公司經營與獲利狀況，並作為決定投資行為的重要參考指標。
The main motivation of this study is to realize the impact of conference calls’ information disclosure on corporate’s future earnings forecasting. In recent years, to alleviate the influence of information asymmetry and to sound the financial market transparency, the corporate’s conference call plays an essential role in transmitting the inherent operation status to current/potential market participants as well as eliminate biased judgments.
From the perspective of current/potential market participants, they are urgent to know the corporate’s operating performance and its future prospects, as well as what kinds of risks it is faced. In this study, the T-test is considered to determine the essential variables and the analyzed outcome is sequentially inserted into decision tree (DT) to conclude the decision rules so as to navigate the investors to form a reliable judgment. By incorporated T-test and DT, we can realize what kinds of information appeared in conference call pose great influence on its future earnings. One of the possible reasons could be that the corporate’s conference call not only shows its current operating performance, it also announces much more in-depth description on its future perspectives and operating strategies. Thus, the investors can take this type of information as a reliable information sources to form their judgments.
