過往探討企業併購績效，主要由傳統財務理論，Fama所提出之定價模型，但現今之企業併購績效卻與傳統財務理論有著截然不同的看法，不再以純粹的財報、財務指標、規模報酬等等，純數據去判斷企業併購之績效，而是加入「人」這個要素，尤其是經理人的判斷。本研究探討經理人行為特質之過度自信(overconfidence)對於併購之異常報酬率影響。
本研究樣本由「台灣經濟新報」(Taiwan Economic Journal, TEJ)所提供，為2006年至2019年上市、上櫃、興櫃之併購樣本，再將樣本組分為過度自信組、總樣本組，並根據距離遠近，依照不同時間區間進行分類對比，經由事件研究法探討其異常報酬率之影響，再以橫斷面分析找出異常報酬率其顯著變數，並探討過度自信經理人對於企業併購之背後意義。
In the past, the discussion on corporate M&A performance was mainly based on traditional financial theories and the pricing model proposed by Fama. However, to-day’s corporate M&A performance has a completely different view from traditional financial theories. It is not based on pure financial reporting, financial indicators, re-turns to scale, etc. Etc., to judge the performance of mergers and acquisitions by pure data, but to add the element of "people", especially the judgment of managers. This study explores the influence of overconfidence of managers' behavior characteristics on the abnormal return rate of mergers and acquisitions.
The sample for this study is provided by the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ). It is a sample of mergers and acquisitions listed, Listed company, and OTC from 2006 to 2019. The sample is divided into the overconfidence group and the total sample group. And based on the long-distance, short-distance, long-term, medium-term and short-term discussion, through the event research method to explore the impact of the abnormal rate of return, and then cross-sectional analysis to find out the significant variables of the abnormal rate of return, and explore the overconfidence of managers The meaning behind mergers and acquisitions.
