美中貿易戰下返臺投資之區位選擇實證分析

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题名:	美中貿易戰下返臺投資之區位選擇實證分析 Empirical Analysis of the Location Choice of Overseas Taiwanese Businesses to Return to Invest in Taiwan under the U.S.-China Trade War
作者:	林怡萱
贡献者:	財務金融學系
关键词:	返臺投資美中貿易戰區位選擇 GARCH Overseas Taiwanese businesses to return to invest in Taiwan U.S.-China trade war Location choice GARCH
日期:	2021
上传时间:	2023-02-20 10:25:54 (UTC+8)
摘要:	隨著國際金融的迅速發展，跨境分工和海外投資已成主流，日新月異的金融政策吸引海外投資者前往入資。臺灣在經濟趨漸平穩之下，日益提升的營運成本便成為吸引眾多臺灣商人轉戰前往中國大陸發展的主要原因之一，然而，隨著貿易壁壘的加深，在風險與利益的平衡中，不排除做出撤資的決定。臺灣推出「歡迎臺商回臺投資行動方案」亦成為許多臺灣企業將製造業從中國遷回臺灣的拉力。本研究以2019年至2020年間受美中貿易談判影響的臺商返回臺灣並在工業區或科學園區建設新工廠和擴大生產線等事件為樣本。活動研究採用GARCH風險調整模型進行事件研究，探討臺商返回臺灣設廠是否產生異常報酬，並進一步比較投資工業區或科學園區之資訊價值的差異。實證結果顯示，經美中貿易戰後，市場投資人對於投資科學園區抱有較正面看法，且無論投資區位為何，短期皆與股東權益報酬率呈負向影響，在中期及長期也和匯率、經濟成長率、公司規模及每股盈餘等因素有顯著影響。 With the rapid development of international finance, cross-border division of labor and overseas investment have become the mainstream, and the ever-changing financial policies attract overseas investors to invest. As Taiwan’s economy stabilizes, rising operating costs have become one of the main reasons for attracting many Taiwanese businessmen to move to China for development. However, as trade barriers intensify, the investment decision may be withdrawn in the balance of risks and benefits. The Taiwan government’s policy “Action Plan for Welcoming Overseas Taiwanese Businesses to Return to Invest in Taiwan” has led many Taiwanese companies to move their manufacturing industries from China to Taiwan. This study takes as samples the events of Taiwanese businessmen affected by the U.S.-China trade negotiations between 2019 and 2020 returning to Taiwan and building new factories and expanding production lines in industrial parks or science parks. This study uses the GARCH risk adjustment model to conduct event study, explores whether Taiwanese businessmen return to Taiwan to set up factories in order to generate abnormal returns, and further compares the difference in information value of investment in industrial parks or science parks. The empirical results show that after the U.S.-China trade war, investors have a more positive view of investing in science parks. Regardless of the investment location, it has a negative impact on the return on equity in the short term, and has a significant impact on factors such as exchange rate, economic growth rate, company size, and earnings per share in the medium and long term.
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