都市化是全球近幾個世紀以來最顯著的變化之一，都市朝向鄉村地區發展並擴大成更大的都市，同時影響社會、政治與經濟生活。然而，當代都市化的人口結構改變與土地使用變遷，已與過去的都市化特徵有非常顯著的差異，再加上都市地區面積不到全球土地面積的2%，卻貢獻全球78%的二氧化碳排放量，因此都市化、人口成長、土地使用改變與二氧化碳排放的關係亟需進一步釐清，並從更小的空間尺度長期分析其動態關係，以助於檢視都市計畫對都市化、人口變遷與二氧化碳排放之掌控能力，並反映與反饋至空間規劃上。因此，本研究擬進行三年研究，第一年研究將盤點國內外相關文獻，並檢討臺灣研究缺口，同時建置人口、土地使用、經濟、所得與能源消費等相關統計資料與圖資，以確認案例地區之都市化與人口變遷現象；第二年研究將建置空間自相關分析與空間迴歸模型，分析案例地區都市化與人口變遷之空間自相關程度，以及其都市化、人口變遷、土地使用與空間規劃之空間異質程度；第三年則透過二氧化碳降尺度分析方法之建置，分析案例地區之住宅部門二氧化碳排放空間分佈情形，並整合討論都市化、人口變遷、二氧化碳排放、土地使用與空間規劃之時空動態關係，以作為未來空間規劃相關單位之參考。
Urbanization is one of the most significant changes in the world in recent centuries. Cities expanded into rural areas and became larger cities, affecting social, political and economic life. However, the demographic changes and land use changes of contemporary urbanization have been significantly different from the characteristics of the past. Urban areas cover much less than 2% of the earth’s surface and contribute 78% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, the relationships among urbanization, demographic change, land use change and carbon dioxide emissions need to be further clarified. Their dynamic relationships should be analyzed at a smaller spatial scale to help examine the abilities of urban planning in controlling urbanization, demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, this study is a three-year research. The first year of the study will review international relevant literature and find the research gap of Taiwan. This year will also establish relevant statistics and maps of population, land use, economy, income and energy consumption to confirm the urbanization and demographic changes in the study areas. In the second year, Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial regression model will be established to analyze the spatial autocorrelation degree and spatial heterogeneity of urbanization and demographic change in the study areas. In the third year, the downscaling analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in the residential sector will be developed to analyze the spatial-temporal distributions of carbon dioxide emissions in the study areas. The results of distributions of carbon dioxide emissions will be discussed with urbanization, demographic change, land use and spatial planning.
