| 摘要: | 國際行銷經理人的新產品全球推廣策略，是產品銷售的關鍵。然而，過去有關新產品跨國擴散之研究，多著重於探討產品全球推廣的瀑布或灑水策略及其干擾和後果變項，卻忽略了口碑跨國擴散之外溢效果。而過去絕大多數的口碑研究，均屬於封閉性研究(探討國境內的口碑擴散效果)。然而，在全球化時代，我們常見到產品在網路的推波助瀾下，引起他國家消費者的廣大迴響。因此，當經理人進行產品跨國推廣時，有必要考慮口碑跨國擴散對銷售的影響效果。拓展國際行銷領域的產品跨國擴散研究，本研究首先聚焦於探討口碑跨國擴散是否存在「領先-落後」、「落後-領先」和「同時」效果。第二，延伸過去國際行銷研究僅聚焦於口碑質和量的討論，本研究檢驗口碑質、量和變異性(兩極化口碑)等三種口碑特質，是否均具有前述三種口碑跨國擴散效果。第三，本研究進一步檢驗三種口碑特質的口碑跨國擴散效果的前因(產品特質)、情境調節(國家文化、經濟財富、產品全球推廣決策)，及其對新產品跨國銷售之影響。第四，本研究發展口碑跨國擴散模型和新產品跨國銷售動態模型，檢驗口碑跨國擴散效果和其對產品跨國動態銷售之影響。本研究提出二個模型，除了期望能交互驗證研究結果外，亦可充分利用二個模型之優勢。口碑跨國擴散模型主要優勢，在於其能具體描述二國間的口碑跨國擴散交互效果，新產品跨國銷售動態模型優勢，在於能同時處理多國的口碑跨國擴散對他國產品動態銷售之影響。本研究以IMDb和Amazon網站作為資料蒐集來源(經驗品：電影、鞋子和衣服；搜尋品：筆電、手機和軟體)，建構產品銷售數據、全球推廣決策、產品特質和口碑特質資料庫。國家文化之評分，係透過Hofstade Insight網站蒐集。各國的電影口碑，則需至該國最著名的電影網站蒐集，如美國的IMDb，中國的豆瓣，韓國的NAVER，德國moviepilot，日本和台灣的Yahoo!。 本研究預期的學術貢獻為，本研究是第一篇證明口碑跨國擴散之外溢效果存在，並對其前因和干擾變數進行探討。此結論能拓展國際行銷文獻，提供影響產品跨國擴散新的預測變數。第二，本研究提出的二個模型能解釋口碑跨國擴散效果和預測產品跨國動態銷售。第三，本研究綜合探討六項產品之口碑跨國擴散效果和其對產品跨國動態銷售之預測，研究結論能做一般化推論。實務上，此研究結論能提供經理人描繪成功的口碑跨國擴散路徑，並調和國家文化和產品推廣決策，發展產品進入市場策略。
Global rollout strategy of new product of international marketing manager was an important key to product’s sale performance. Most of the prior studies related to cross-national diffusion of a new product, however, had focused on the investigation of sprinkler or waterfall strategy of product rollout and its moderators and performance, and the spillover effect of cross-national word-of-mouth (WOM) diffusion was neglected. Part of the reason was, most of the prior WOM researches belonged to closed researches (investigating domestic WOM diffusion effect). In a globalization era, however, it was usually seen that the WOM of a product was promoted in the online social network to strike a chord on consumers from other countries. Therefore, when managers were conducting an investigation of global rollout strategy of a new product, it was needed to consider cross-national WOM diffusion effect and its possible effect on the sales.Extending study on cross-national diffusion effect of new product in international marketing literature, first, this study focuses on the investigation of “lead-lag”, “lag-lead” and “simultaneous” effects of cross-national WOM diffusion. Second, extending the mere focus of discussion on volume and valence of WOM in the previous international marketing literature, this study investigates whether the three WOM features (volume, valence, and additionally added the investigating of the WOM variance [controversial WOM]) exists the three cross-national WOM diffusion effects aforementioned. Third, this study investigates the determinants (i.e., product-specific factors) and boundaries (i.e., national culture, economic wealth, and global rollout decision) of cross-national WOM diffusion effect of three WOM metrics, and their effects on the performance of a new product. Fourth, this study develops the cross-national WOM diffusion model and dynamic simultaneous-equations model to investigate the cross-national WOM diffusion effects and their effects on product performance. This study proposes two models to measure cross-national WOM diffusion effects and their effects on product performance, in addition to expecting to use the two models to verify mutually whether the research results are consistent, the advantages of the two models can also be used. Cross-national WOM diffusion model can focus on the measurement of the interaction effect of cross-national WOM diffusion, but the advantage of dynamic simultaneous equations model is its competence to handle complicated cross-national product diffusion scenario. IMDb and Amazon websites are used as data source for collecting experiencing products and search products so as to build up the database of product sale and its global rollout decision, product-specific factors, and WOM data. The expected contributions of this study are: This study is the first study to prove that three cross-national WOM diffusion effects do exist and discusses their determinants and moderators, these conclusions can extend international marketing literature to provide a new explanation for factors affecting product’s cross-national diffusion. Second, this study proposes two models can be used to predict cross-national WOM diffusion and dynamic sales. Third, the result of this study provides managers a roadmap to the successful implementation of cross-national WOM diffusion, therefore, managers can reconcile the country-specific factors to develop the market entering strategy for the new product. |
