本研究將從角色理論的分析途徑,探討總統制下的土耳其在中東秩序下的戰略角色。傳統針對土耳其的中東戰略,不是從國際層面分析地緣政治、國際體系的影響或是從國家利益的思考,不然就是從國內政治的角度出發,探討伊斯蘭主義、新奧圖曼主義或政黨與個人因素的影響。角色理論從行為者與結構的互動關係出發,可以補充研究之不足。 其次,土耳其在2018年選後所面臨的多重挑戰,也引發土耳其的外交政策與戰略角色,究竟是往俄羅斯靠攏?還是如埃爾多安總統在選舉期間所說的「新現實主義」?又或者是近期的「進取的外交政策」?其內涵有何不同?本研究將採用角色理論中主張的「國內政治與制度」、「領導者」與「角色扮演」三個層次,分析土國的角色概念與衝突,並從近期在敘利亞與伊拉克北部的相關行動,分析三個層次對土國國家角色的影響。特別是日前美國總統川普宣稱美國將從敘利亞撤兵,是否會為中東的秩序產生影響?而作為區域重要國家的土耳其,在總統制的施行之下,其戰略選擇為何,對此區域會有重要的影響,因而本研究亦有實務上的研究價值。
This project will focus on Turkey’s strategic role on the Middle East under the presidential system with role theory. Traditionally, studies on Turkey’s Middle East policy started either from international (geopolitics, international system, national interests) or domestic aspects (new Ottomanism, (re-)Islaminization, political parties, or individual). Role theory deals with the interrelation between agent and structure. This study with role theory will complement academic results on foreign policy analysis. Secondly, Turkey faces multiple challenges after 2018 election. These challenges raised questions on whether the West will lose its alliance? Or, as President Erdoğan said, Turkey is adopting neo-realist approach? What does it mean on the “enterprising foreign policy” recently? This project uses the variables, such as domestic institution, leader, and role playing as research topic to analyze Turkish role conception and the practices in the Middle East, especially on the issue related to Syria and Iraq. The topic has its value in practice. Especially when U.S. president declared to withdraw troops from Syria, Turkey’s role on this issue and the Middle East is very important not only on this region, but international relations.