| 摘要: | 本研究試圖檢視在全世界具有總統直選與國會選舉的民主國家(即總統制與半總統制國 家)中，國會選制、總統選制與選舉時程對於政府型態造成的綜合影響。一般認為，不同的國 會選制會形塑不同的國會政黨體系，而不同的國會政黨體系與憲政體制相互組合則會形成不 同的政府型態。例如單一選區相對多數制傾向形成兩黨制，而兩黨制與內閣制相互組合則通 常形成一黨政府；又例如比例代表制傾向形成多黨制，而多黨制與總統制相互組合則通常形 成分立政府。不過，上述的傳統看法稍嫌簡略，因為在總統制與半總統制民主國家中，影響 國會政黨體系的制度因素不僅是國會選制，總統選制與選舉時程也分別對國會政黨體系造成 影響。例如就總統選制而言，相對多數制相較於絕對多數制的總統選制通常會更壓縮小黨的 生存空間，減少國會中的政黨數目；又例如就選舉時程而言，期中選舉相較於其他選舉時程 通常會使小黨擁有較大的生存空間，使國會中的政黨數目較多。而且，選舉時程不僅會影響 國會政黨體系，也會直接影響政府型態。例如期中選舉較容易形成分立政府，同時選舉與蜜 月期選舉則較容易形成一致政府。 因此，本研究認為在總統制與半總統制下，「國會選制」、「總統選制」、「選舉時程」、「國 會政黨體系」、「政府型態」等變項的關係是：「國會選制」、「總統選制」、「選舉時程」等三個 變項(自變項)共同塑造「國會政黨體系」(中介變項)，而「國會政黨體系」與總統制與半總統 制相互組合則形成不同的「政府型態」(依變項)。此外，「選舉時程」(自變項)也會直接影響 「政府型態」(依變項)。總之，本研究將以上述各變項構成的分析架構為基礎，探討選舉制 度與選舉時程如何影響總統制與半總統制民主國家的政府型態。希望透過本研究，能夠對當 代民主國家選舉制度與憲政體制的配套問題有更深入的理解。
This study tries to investigate the comprehensive impacts of parliamentary electoral systems, presidential electoral systems and election timings on the types of government among the presidential and semi-presidential democracies all over the world. Generally speaking, different parliamentary electoral systems will shape different party systems in the parliament, and different combinations of the party system and constitutional system will form different types of government. For example, plurality with single-member-district system tends to form two-party system, and the combination of two-party system and parliamentary system usually establishes a one-party government. Also, proportional representation system is likely to form multi-party system, and the combination of multi-party system and presidential system generally establishes a divided government. However, the above traditional patterns are too simple. In the presidential and semi-presidential democracies, the factor that may affect the party system in the parliament is not merely the parliamentary electoral system, so may the presidential electoral system and election timing. Regarding the presidential electoral system, relative plurality system, compared with absolute plurality system, gives less chance for small political parties to survive, which consequently reduces the number of political parties in the parliament. In terms of the election timing, mid-term election, compared with other election timings, provides more space for small parties to survive, and increases the number of political parties in the parliament. Furthermore, the election timing will not only affect the party system in the parliament, but also directly influence the type of government. For instance, mid-term election easily forms a divided government, while concurrent election and honeymoon election tend to establish a unified government. Therefore, this study believes that, under presidential and semi-presidential systems, the relations among the variables, which are parliamentary electoral system, presidential electoral system, election timing, party system in the parliament and the type of government, are as follows. Parliamentary electoral system, presidential electoral system and election timing (independent variables) will jointly shape the party system in the parliament (intervening variable), while different types of government (dependent variable) will be formed when the party system in the parliament is collocated with presidential or semi-presidential systems. In addition, the election timing (independent variable) will also directly affect the types of government (dependent variable). In summary, based on the analytical framework composed of the above variables, this study explores how electoral systems and election timings will affect the type of government in the presidential and semi-presidential democracies around the world. |
