一般探討經濟成長的文獻中,不論是Solow的新古典成長模型或是後來的內生性成長模型,所考慮的變數不外是:資本、勞動、技術進步等經濟因素,然而一國的租稅政策(本文指租稅負擔及租稅結構)對資本及勞動等生產要素的提供有一定程度的影響,因此租稅政策亦會影響到經濟成長。 臺灣在1963~2001年的實際經濟成長率介於13.86%~-2.18%;租稅負擔(稅收及公賣利益占GDP的比重)則為11.3%~19.37%;租稅結構(本文指間接稅占直接稅的比率)則從4.28一路下降到0.73。由於各年所面臨的非租稅環境不盡相同,因此租稅負擔相似的年度但經濟成長卻有不同。本篇論文乃試圖透過實證工具探討:當考慮了非租稅的環境變數後,租稅政策對經濟成長的影響效果,並試圖找出使經濟成長達到極大化的租稅負擔及租稅結構。 本文採用二階段(two stage)實證方法,第一階段以資料包絡分析法(Data Envelopment Analysis;簡稱DEA)處理非租稅的環境變數,求出的效率值若為1表示該年的非租稅環境佳,小於1則代表該年的非租稅環境較差,藉以調整各年的名目租稅負擔率;第二階段則以調整後的租稅負擔及租稅結構為解釋變數,以OLS對經濟成長率作迴歸分析,得出之結果如下:(1)租稅負擔對經濟成長的影響較租稅結構大,但其影響力正逐漸下降中。(2)當非租稅環境不佳時,政府欲以減稅刺激經濟成長效果不彰。(3)臺灣經濟成長率極大化之平均租稅負擔12.72%,平均租稅結構為1.38(即直接稅占總稅收約42%)。(4)以最近十年(1991~2001)來看,使臺灣經濟成長率極大化之平均租稅負擔為14.8%,平均租稅結構為0.90(直接稅占總稅收約52.63%),而已觀察到的租稅負擔為15.98%,租稅結構為0.84(直接稅占總稅收約54.35%),故以臺灣目前的情況來說,整體租稅環境己逼近使成長極大化之租稅環境,所以,欲求經濟成長應當求諸於非租稅環境之改善。
Annual real GDP growth rates in Taiwan ranges from 13.86% to - 2.18% since 1963. The tax burden (the ratio of tax revenue to GDP) is from 11.3% to 19.37% and the tax mix (the ratio of indirect taxes to direct taxes) has trended downwards from 4.28 to 0.73. In this paper we estimate a combination of the tax burden and the taxmin which would maximize the rate of growth of GDP of Taiwan from 1963 to 2001. Data Envelopment Analysis is first applied to estimate an aggregate non-tax environment indicator, then GDP growth rates are regressed on tax burden and tax mix variables. The main results we obtained are: (1) We find that tax burden has done much more damage to economic growth than tax mix but the impact is decreasing by year. (2) We also find it nearly impossible to increase economic growth with lowering tax rate when non-tax environment is less favorable. (3) The mean growth maximizing tax burden is 12.72% of GDP and the mean growth maximizing tax mix is 1.38. (4) From 1991 to 2001, the mean growth maximizing tax burden is 14.8% and tax mix is 0.9 (implying the ratio direct taxes to total revenue is 52.63%) with the observed tax burden 15.98% and tax mix 0.84 (implying the ratio direct taxes to total tax revenue is 54.35%). Finally, recently in Taiwan, the tax environment is close to the growth maximizing level. To raise economic growth, we must improve non-tax environment.