全球人口總數快速增長，糧食需求亦隨之增加。在全球氣候變遷的影響下，糧食生產是否能穩定供給為舉世所重視。本文係介紹經驗模式法、區域模擬模式法、全球模擬模式法等三種量化方法，評估全球氣候與環境變遷對糧食生產穩定性之影響。並舉Geng等人的研究為例，說明利用全球環流模式、氣候變數產生器、作物模擬模式與氣候模式，預測氣候變遷下農作物產量的變化情形。同時利用SIMMETEO模式模擬臺北月降雨日、降雨量、風速、濕度、日射及平均月氣壓，且獲得實測值十分接近之結果。
The world's population is growing at an annual rate of 86 million. The continuously increasing population place a heavy responsibility for agriculture to provide adequate food and a greater dependency on a stable weather system under which stable food supply is possible. However, world-wide weather patters have been anything but stable in recent years. The droughts and floods have occurred with a greater frequency in Asia and North America. The world grain carryover stock was the lowest for 1995 than for previous 35 years. The 1995 IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) assessment projects an additional rise of 0.8-3.5 degree Celsius in the global average temperature by 2100. A critical evaluation of the impact of the possible weather change on food production is urgently needed by all countries, particularly, for those countries where the most population growth is likely to occur, such as China. This paper present a brief review of some of the assessment approaches and the likely impacts. The simulation approach is illustrated by an example of the US study. A pacific rim study indicated that the wheat yields may reduceby 37 to 51% in Australia, 17 to 42% in Canada, 3.7% in China, 8 to 61% in the US.
