2009年德國聯邦眾議院選舉的結果顯示，右派陣營的得票率終於超越左派陣營，並且再次組成右派聯合政府。分析1990年至2009年這段期間的歷屆聯邦眾議院選舉結果，本文發現，德國社會的意識形態由原先的右傾轉變為左傾，後來又逐漸回歸為右傾。整個回歸歷程的轉折點就在1998年的聯邦眾議院選舉；該次選舉獲勝的左派陣營組成全新的聯合政府型態－社民黨/綠黨所合組的紅綠聯合政府，從而啟動1949年以來德國首次的全面性政黨輪替。有鑑於此，促成本次全面性政黨輪替的因素是值得探討的，藉由本文的分析，將有助於深入瞭解近20年來德國政黨政治的演變。本文的分析架構係以全球化下的社會國為主軸；圍繞主軸，本文將對社會國危機、大量失業問題、社會民主的機會、新中間政策與社民黨的重新定位及其贏得1998年眾議院選舉等議題，進行詳細剖析並建構其關聯性。本文認為，社會國改造與新中間政策乃是促成社民黨勝選與德國首次全面性政黨輪替的二個重要因素。
The outcome of the 2009 Bundestag Election indicated that the percentage of votes of the right-wing camp was higher than that of the left-wing camp, and a coalition government composed of the right-wing camp was formed again. When analyzing the vote results of the Bundestag Elections from 1990 to 2009, it could be found that after social ideology in Germany shifted from the original right-wing ideology to that of the left-wing, it shifted back to the right-wing ideology again now. The turning point this ideological shift was the 1998 Bundestag Election. The left-wing camp won this election, and organized a new type of coalition government composed of ”Social Democratic Party/Green Party” (the Red-Green coalition government) to activate the first overall party alternation in Germany after 1949. As a result, the important factors which contributed to this overall party alternation deserved to be investigated and the analysis of these factors would help to understand the transformation of party politics in Germany over the last twenty years. Based on the theme of the social state under globalization, this paper analyzes the following issues: the crisis of social state, the massive unemployment, the opportunity of social democracy, the policy of the new middle, the repositioning of Social Democratic Party, and how Social Democratic Party won the 1998 Bundestag Election and constructed relevance among them. This paper suggests that the reform of social state and the policy of the new middle are the two important factors contributing to the triumph of Social Democratic Party and also to the first overall party alternation in Germany.
