儘管阿弘認為自己的國際政治理論只適用於冷戰時期，但基於20世紀中葉以來日益強調不確定性的科學走向，並參照摩根索、瓦爾茲等人對科學概念的理解，今天似乎可以從三個知識論層級看出他的理論並沒有過時的問題：第一、在元理論層次，他以一系列的二律背反和特殊符碼，點明了許多不確定性的問題；第二、在元結構層次，他透過社會學與歷史學的方法論，將當事人與政治實體推出更嚴謹的二項式互動結構；第三、在實踐學層次，他對一系列外交行為提出二律背反的探索，從而不但超越了精確科學在確定性上的侷限，而且已為後現代－全球化提供了若干後設依據。唯為能在一定層次上對阿弘的理論做出較完整的描述，本論文在若干場合採用了結構主義符號學的方法。
It is with regards of the importance of the uncertainty for the current scientific philosophy that we want to interpret the theory of the international relations of the Cold War by Raymond Aron, using the comprehension which is concerned with the scientific conceptions of Mogenthau, Waltz, and others; and we want to verify not only that this theory keeps a sort of efficiency until today, but also that Aron has found some theories about the uncertainty on a higher level.
We first want to show, in the field of metatheory, that the specific codes and the antinomies which have been proposed by Aron certainly are about the question of uncertainty, and in the field of metastructure, the relations between sociology and history as examined by Aron which can help to build a binary structure (intern/extern) with the richest content, and finally, in the field of praxelogy, that a series of antinomies of diplomatic actions reflected by Aron is surpassing the limits of the certainty of exact science. By finishing the article, we use the model of ”syntagm/paradigm” of structuralism describing the uncertainty and non-passing of time of the theory of international relations by Aron.
