一個健全的證券市場,可以作為社會上儲蓄者與投資者的橋樑,合理而有效率地運用社會上的長期資金,促進經濟發展;然投資人面對日趨多元與複雜化的金融證券商品,其投資決策更趨複雜與困頓。投資人因風險屬性差異其交易策略考量因素為何?是否存在著差異性?實務上影響交易策略考量的因素有賴系統性的探討。
本研究運用層級程序分析法(analytic hierarchy process, AHP)、德菲法以及21份專家問卷評估分析,探討投資人採取的交易策略考量因素架構與不同風險屬性投資人之考量因素權重。
研究結果顯示,在主準則方面積極型與平衡型投資人較著重於「投資報酬」面考量;保守型則為「投資風險」。次準則優先次序考量因素積極型、平衡型、保守型之投資人對各權重觀點之排序分別為:(一)積極型投資人:投資報酬(短期)、投資標的成長性(營收)、投資報酬(股利)。(二)平衡型投資人:投資報酬(股利)、投資報酬(短期)、投資標的成長性(ROE)。(三)保守型投資人:投資風險(產業風險)、投資報酬(股利)、投資標的成長性(ROE)。
本研究從積極型、平衡型及保守型證券投資人三方觀點探討,除做為投資人依其風險屬性類型參考交易策略考量因素優先順序外,並為證券投資實務業者整理出系統性的架構,提供三類型投資人交易策略考量因素權重排序參考,可為投資商品之設計以期提供更符合證券投資人之適切商品與提供此三類投資人交易策略建議。
A healthy stock market not only can become a bridge between investors and savers, but also support the economic development by reasonable and efficient use of long-term funds. However, investors face many various and complicated financial commodity, it is difficult or more complex to prioritize their investment decisions.
In this study, we employ the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Delphi method to explore the important factors of trading strategy and its priorities for different type of equity investors by 21 expert questionnaires.
The results of this study suggest that the primary criterion for trading strategy is “return on investment” in aggressive and stable investors, and “investment risk” in conservative investors. The priorities for the second criterion in different type of investors are as follow: (1)Aggressive investors, “return on investment” (short-term), “investment targets growth” (revenue), “return on investment” (dividend). (2)Stable investors, “return on investment” (dividend), “return on investment” (short-term), “investment targets growth” (ROE). (3)Conservative investors, “investment risk” (industry risk), “return on investment” (dividend), “investment targets growth” (ROE).
The final results can help to find out the systematic framework in investment considerations.