| 摘要: | 在台灣人心目中「有土斯有財」的觀念早己深根蒂固，喜歡買地、買房進而促進營建業的蓬勃發展。
各行各業的財務報表都是繁複的，營建業更甚，然而當法令改變時新舊資訊產生差異，該如何判讀財務資訊？
一般而言，投資人在進行股票投資決策時，若著重於公司基本面時，則公司每個月營業收入應可作為衡量公司營業績效的合理指標，進而作為投資時的一個重要參考數據。
本研究就依股價為觀點，探討月營收資料是否為公司及投資人判讀股價變動的參考依據。並依IFRSs採行前、後台灣上市營建業之營業收入定義與內容的改變所出現之差異是否會影響股價之變動。
經由線性與分量(quantile)非線性迴歸分析實證結果發現：
一、 月營業收入對股價之影響，利用分量(非線性)迴歸分析比線性迴歸分析的效果更佳，也就是採行IFRSs前影響股價的因素偏向於營收可直接影響股價。
二、 採行IFRSs後採用合併營收及全部完工法，更能忠實表達營建業的財務報表，此時營收對股價影響程度相對變小。
三、 因此IFRSs後，財務變數對股價之影響，需參考更多其他財務因素加以綜合考量，營收個別財務變數影響股價變動相對有限，另一方面亦可有效防止建商，利用月營收資料來炒作股價。
四、 IFRSs採行後對台灣上市營建業而言，其每年公告相關報告之內容將與實際營運關係趨於一致，可降低營建業運用完工比例法之會計處理原則，讓帳面損益趨於平穩進而影響股價之真實性。
In Taiwan, the following concept has already rooted in their mind. As an old saying goes, "He that has gold may buy land." This traditional concept facilitates the phenomenon that people buy land or real estate which also prospers the construction industry.
The financial statement in all walks of life is complicated and the construction companies' are even more complicated. Then, the change of the related regulations may result in the difficulties of judging the information.
In general, when the investors stress on the fundamental analysis while analyzing the investment strategy of stock market, they may take monthly sales revenue as proper index for measuring the company performance.
This study focuses on whether monthly sales revenue serves as the proper reference for investors under the basis of stock price. Then, in accordance with the adoption of IFRSs, whether the difference of the definition or the conetent of listing revenues of the construction industry may affect the stock price movements.
By using linear and quantile (nonlinear) regression analysis, we found the following empirical results:
First, when it comes to the monthly revenue's influence on the stock price, the use of quantile (nonlinear) regression analysis is better than the linear regression analysis. In other words, before the adoption of IFRSs, it is more likely that revenue can directly affect the stock price.
Second, after the adoption of IFRSs, by using consolidated revenue and completed contract method, may faithfully show the financial statements of the construction industry. In this case, revenue's impact on stock prices is relatively small which indicates that the quality of financial information after IFRSs is more robust.
Third, therefore after IFRSs, to observe which financial variables affect the stock price, we need to refer to other financial factors to stand our point. That revenue affects the stock price is relatively limited.
Fourth, after the adoption of IFRSs, the construction listed industry in Taiwan , its regular reporting is nearly consistent with the actual operation. This may reduce the construction industry using percentage of completion method, so as to decorate the book value and then affect the genuine stock price. |
