政府抑制房價措施對營建類與金融類股價報酬率影響之研究

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Title:	政府抑制房價措施對營建類與金融類股價報酬率影響之研究 The Impact of Curbing Housing Prices Policies by Government on Return of Construction Firms and Financial Sectors
Authors:	林君璘
Contributors:	財務金融學系
Keywords:	事件研究法累積異常報酬率抑制房價措施 event study cumulative abnormal returns policies of curbing property speculation
Date:	2016-06
Issue Date:	2016-08-02 13:53:15 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	近年來台灣貧富差距的惡化與房價所得比的日趨攀升，房價高漲的程度不僅使民眾體認購屋能力及房貸負擔能力不足，亦引起民眾對居住正義相關議題之討論。因此，政府於2011年起依序推行奢侈稅、實價登錄、選擇性信用管制與房地合一稅等抑制房價之措施，希冀能減緩房價過高之情況。本研究將政府抑制房價措施分為政策面與稅制面，使用事件研究法檢測營建業及金融業所產生的累積異常報酬，觀察政府抑制房價措施對兩者股價報酬之影響，並以橫斷面複迴歸分析瞭解影響累積異常報酬之重要解釋因子。實證結果政策面對於金融業為顯著的負向效果，營建業則反之；在稅制面對營建業為顯著的負向效果，金融業反應較無營建業之明顯。此外透過複迴歸分析發現在政策面對兩個產業較無顯著，然而稅制面營建業對營收成長率為負向效果，金融業對負債比率與代理托賓為負向效果，研究結果將可作為投資人進行投資佈局時之參考依據。 In resent year, the real estate price has reached high while household income level stays the same. Since 2000, the property problem has worsened and the real household income gradually decreased. Moreover, the high degree of house price not only make people realize they are lacked of housing affordability, but also urged them to discuss the related issues regarding the rights of living. Since 2011, the government has attempted to decrease the real estate price through Policies for Curbing Property Speculation. This study divides government policies for curbing property speculation into policy and tax aspects. First, the Event Study was used to detect the cumulative abnormal return of financial sector and construction firms, when the Policies for Curbing Property Speculation was announced. Second, the Cross-sectional regression analysis was applied to examine the factors influencing the cumulative abnormal return. The result showed the policy had a negative effect on financial sector but the opposite on construction firms. On the other hand, taxes had significant negative effects on and construction firms when the luxury tax and the integrated housing and land taxation were under the way. In addition, the multiple regression analysis found that the policy associated with revenue growth rate and long-term debt ratios produced negative consequences on the construction industry. Rate of return on assets and long-term debt ratios had negative effects on Financial Sectors. With respect to tax revenue, it has an adverse effect on growth rate of construction industry. Similarly, the tax revenue has caused a negative impact on financial sectors in terms of rate of return on assets and long-term debt ratio. The results of this research can be used by investors in their decision-making process.
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