| 摘要: | 本研究主要目的是透過量化風險評估的方式探討丙烯槽車運輸風險，量化風險評估的計算利用SAFETI風險評估軟體來進行，在這當中我們考慮的因素有：風速、風向、大氣溫度、大氣濕度、平均速度、平均車流量、洩漏情況、人口密度等條件。除了部分資訊如洩漏風險、大氣穩定度以及地表粗糙度等資訊外，研究中所蒐集的其他資料都是由公部門在網站上所公開的資訊。透過原始資料的整理後轉換成SAFETI風險評估軟體所需輸入的資料與形式。在本研究中氣候條件部份我們所參考的資料為高雄前鎮氣象觀測站所提供104年之氣象資料作為本研究之氣象資料之依據，為考量槽車運作時間以及風險等因素，濕度、溫度、風速以及風向均採用當年度6月到8月上午六點至下午六點之平均值。交通條件則是分為一般道路與高速公路，在一般平面道路的車流量資料以高雄市政府交通局所提供的高雄市區主要幹道平均全日車流量與平均速彙整，高速公路的車流量資料以交通部台灣區國道公速公路局所提供的104年日交通量參考值做為參考。人口資料部分以高雄市政府民政局所公布的人口進行人口密度計算。整理好以上資料後開輸入資料以利用SAFETI風險評估軟體進行模擬，並針對一趟次與十趟次的情況做討論。研究中發現在所探討的運輸路線上，無論是單一趟次或者是十趟次的情況，以目前研究所設定的情況均無法達到社會風險容許範圍，也就是利用丙烯槽車運送必須透過工程手段或人為方式的目的降低社會風險到達可接受的範圍。
The purpose of this study is to discuss the risk of transporting propylene by truck by quantitative risk assessment. Used SAFETI (Software for Assessment of Flammable, Explosive and Toxic Impacts) to do quantitative risk assessment, we took some factors in account : wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity, vehicle speed, average traffic volume, scenario of release,and density. Only the data of risk of release, of Pasquill stability,and of surface roughness is provided from reference, the rest of data all is from the public departments,and we turned the material data into the information and form that the SAFETI needs. In weather condition, the data we refered is from the local weather station in 2015,and based on the shipment duration and the risk by truck, we took the average of humidity, temperature, wind speed,and wind direction at 6am to 6pm in June to August into account. In the traffic condition, we separated into normal road and highway; in the normal road, the data is provided from local trasportation bureau and in the highway is provided from Taiwan Area National Freeway Bureau. In the density part, we took the local civi affairs bureau’s data into account. After sorting the data above, we put into SAFETI to do the simulation and to discuss the circumstance of one trip and ten trips.
This study reveal that either one trip or ten trips can reach the standard that we set at this study, namely, we have to use other way to reach the standard. |
