| 摘要: | 現今大都市由於人口過密，易產生許多都市問題；因而，疏導都會區人口密集，提昇居住環境品質要求已成發展趨勢，故新市鎮開發已成為必然之趨勢；但由都市發展的結果觀察，發現實際開發與使用情形，往往與擬訂的規劃構想有一段落差。都市計畫依據規劃目標、規劃理論等基礎，研擬土地使用及開發計畫，而在開發與發展環境的實際影響作用下，改變新市鎮的發展結構，產生異於原規劃構想的結果。因此引發本研究探討之課題：1.計畫所依循的規劃理論，是否與實際發展成果有所差距？2.新市鎮計畫成果是否隨時空變化產生期待差距。
本研究依據1971年經合會都市建設及住宅計畫小組所擬訂的林口新市鎮規劃，以及第一次至第三次林口特定區計畫都市計畫通盤檢討內容作為理論基礎。分析環境條件、交通運輸、都市結構、社會經濟與消費需求等影響新市鎮發展的重要因素，透過分析新市鎮都市發展過程及此五大因素的作用關係， 找出影響新市鎮發展過程中主要因子。瞭解林口新市鎮發展成果之觀察與理論差距。再以林口市鎮為實證地區，透過人口發展分析、投資開發分析、生活品質調查，並透過GIS圖資進行林口新市鎮人口變遷等指標分析，另一方面，以產、官、學各面向的深入訪談，具體研析出林口新市鎮開發之期待差異，與土地使用變遷的分析過程進行交叉比對，檢討林口新市鎮發展成果是否符合預期目標，並提出新市鎮開發與期待差距之論述意涵。
1971年林口新市鎮規劃論述以花園城市及鄰里單元規劃為主，但實際發展成果與計畫內容未完全一致。影響新市鎮開共有五大重要因素，其中環境條件是新市鎮開發的基礎，而都市結構、交通運輸、消費需求與社會經濟則相互影響促成新市鎮整體發展。林口新市鎮於2006年起人口大幅度成長，交通運輸為主要帶動新市鎮發展之關鍵因子，遲至今林口新市鎮之人口與資本投入建設仍未完臻；再經由地方人士訪談，瞭解新市鎮建設的期待差距。本研究顯示，林口新市鎮計畫與實質成果存在差異，發展建設也不符期待。綜觀林口新市鎮宜朝向大眾運輸導向（TOD）規劃調整土地使用計畫、交通運輸、社區發展、公共設施等。提昇生活品質、建置多元交通運輸設施，有效減少使用者之期待差距，期對林口新市鎮發展有正向影響。
In recent year, the quality of life in large cities is decreasing due to the problem of overpopulation. Therefore, new town development is considered as a solution to the urban problem in modern society. However, there are discrepancies between the planned development and the actual development. Thus, this research study seeks to analyze the following issues: 1. Are there differences between the urban planning according to theories and the actual development. 2. Is the gap between results and expectation increasing due to the change of space and time.
This research focuses on the factors that affect new town development, namely environment condition, traffic, urban structure, social economics, and consumer demand. By analyzing the correlation between new town development and the five factors, the main factors that affect new town development can be found. In this research, Linkou new town is used as an empirical case of new town development. To observe the gap between plan and result, this research uses the following methods. Geographic information system (GIS) is used to analyze the indicators of new town development such as population change, growth of the population, growth of investment, and quality of life. The interview of industry, government, and academic is used to identify the causes of the difference between development and expectation. This research reviews if the development meets the expectation through comparing the results of the methods.
This research finds that the environment condition is the foundation of new town development. On the other hand, urban structure, traffic, consumer demand, and social economics are interacting to facilitate the development of new town. Linkou new town has a large growth of population in 2006. However, transport infrastructure investment cannot satisfy the growing population. According to the interview of local people, there is a gap between expectation and current development. This research shows the infrastructure investments in Linkou do not meet the expectation of local inhabitants. Besides, there is also a gap between preliminary plan and current development. Therefore, Linkou new town should follow the principle of transit-oriented development (TOD) to plan land use, transport investment, community development, and public facilities in order to eliminate the gap and facilitate the development of new town. |
