本研究探討梅雨期間本省中部山脈西麓海拔高度低於1000公尺之地 區，連續三天降雨總量達150公釐以上豪雨之發生機率與空間分佈。研究中選用 區內記錄年數大於三十年的測站資料，計算各雨量站之累年豪雨次數平均值，以 普松分布函數估算各測站豪雨發生之機率，再由Cokriging方法結合雨量測站與地 區高程資料，計算區內豪雨發生機率之空間分布。結果顯示，區內豪雨發生之機 率介於0.35至0.85之間，機率之分布由西向東愈往山區愈大，且依地形而變化
Probabilities of rainstorms occurred during Mei-Yu season and its spatial distribution incentral Taiwan were computed. The studied area was to the west of Central Mountain Rangesand had elevation lower than 1000 m. A rainstorm was defined as there was more than 150mm precipitation within three days. The Probability of rainstorm occurrence for each stationwas estimated by long-term average 030 years) of the occurrence and Poisson distribution. Thespatial distribution of the probilities was computed by Cokriging method. Results showed thatthe probabilities ranged from 0.35 to 0.85 in this region. The spatial distributions were significantly affected by topography of Central Mountain Ranges. Basically, the probabilities decreasedfrom hillside to seashore.
