近年來台灣物價指數逐年上升，油電及瓦斯雙雙飆漲，物價波動居高不下，隨著資金過熱流入商品市場，將影響未來物價通膨甚鉅。因此，身為現代人應具有基本理財概念，投資金融商品變成不錯的選擇工具，若能從國際原物料價格波動，觀察當前通膨反應，間接影響台灣物價指數波動，藉此關係變化投資國外金融商品標的，亦是從國外商品指數，瞭解台灣物價指數之波動，檢定兩者是否具有因果關係或共整合關係等，相對投資者可從金融商品預測國內通膨指數未來走勢，以利投資者日後作為決策參考之指標。本研究以國際商品指數(GSCI指數與CRB指數)與台灣物價指數(CPI指數與WPI指數)為變數是否相互影響，其相互影響程度如何，並分析ETF上市前後期間的國際商品物價指數與台灣通膨現象有何分別。
In recent years, Taiwan's CPI increased year by year, both soaring oil and electricity and gas, the commodity price volatility remains high, with the inflow of funds over-heated commodity markets, which will affect commodity price and inflation. As a mod-ern man should have basic financial concepts, it is important to understand financial products connected with international commodity prices. Thus, this study aims to ex-amine the relationship between international commodity prices and price index of Tai-wan. Specifically, we use a VAR model to test whether any granger-causal relationship exists between the international commodity price index and the price index in Taiwan. The international commodity price index is measured by the GSCI index and CRB in-dex, and the price index in Taiwan is measured by CPI index and WPI index. The results can be regarded as references for investors or enterprises demanding to fight against inflation.
