房價在不動產市場上之重要議題之一，本研究針對中古屋市場及預售屋/新成屋市場進行探討，並了解總體經濟因素對中古屋市場及預售屋/新成屋市場之關係。研究對象是以台灣地區主要縣市之房價，研究資料為代表中古屋市場的信義房價指數、代表預售屋/新成屋市場的國泰房價指數以及國泰房地產議價空間指數，研究期間為2001年第一季至2014年第四季，總體經濟變數包含購屋貸款利率、貨幣供給額M2、加權平均股價指數等。
實證結果發現，貨幣供給額M2對中古屋、預售屋/新成屋房價及議價空間指數皆有正向顯著影響，其變動則不影響房價的漲跌；加權平均股價指數僅對議價空間指數有負向顯著影響，其上升則會造成中古屋房價上漲、議價空間指數下跌。購屋貸款利率則對中古屋、預售屋/新成屋房價有正向顯著影響，但利率的上揚會壓縮議價空間。
Housing price has been one of the most important issues in real estate market. This study further discusses the prices of re-housing market and presold house market for a better understanding of their relations with the macroeconomic factors during the period of 2001-2014. The quarterly data comes from Xinyi Home Prices Indices for the re-housing market as well as Cathay Real Estate Prices Indices for the presold house market. The macroeconomic variables include M2, the rate of mortgages, and the market-share weighted stock index. We then explore the relationship between the prices of re-housing, pre-sale homes, new house and the major macro economy variables.
The empirical result shows that M2 has a significant positive effect on the price of the re-housing market, presold house market and bargaining-space index. Yet the change of M2 would not affect those prices. The market-share weighted stock index only has a significant negative effect on bargaining-space index. Its change has a positive and a negative impact upon the prices of re-housing and bargaining space index, respectively. The rate of mortgages has positively significant effects for both re-housing market and presold house market. However, its change negatively affects the bargaining-space index.
