氣候變遷下洪水災害風險認知之研究－以台北市萬華區為例

文化大學機構典藏 CCUR > 環境規劃暨生物資源學院 > 環境設計學院 > 都市計劃與開發管理學系所 > 博碩士論文 > Item 987654321/29940

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題名:	氣候變遷下洪水災害風險認知之研究－以台北市萬華區為例 A Risk Cognition Study of Flooding on Climate Changes －A Case Study of Wanhua District of Taipei City
作者:	吳品儀 Wu, Ping-Yi
貢獻者:	巿政暨環境規劃學系
關鍵詞:	氣候變遷脆弱度洪災風險認知結構方程模式 climate change vulnerability flooding risk cognition SEM
日期:	2015-06
上傳時間:	2015-07-28 15:16:55 (UTC+8)
摘要:	近年來氣候變遷造成全球溫度升高，極端氣候日益頻繁，而台灣位於副熱帶季風氣候區，颱風、梅雨等季節性降雨頻繁，帶來強度大、面積廣、時間長的降雨型態，若加上氣候變遷的極端現象，恐造成降雨強度與頻率增加，導致嚴重的洪水災害。因此，在未來高度不確定性風險下，民眾更須具備災害風險的認知，才能減少災害發生時造成的損害。緣此，本研究透過文獻瞭解氣候變遷衝擊與影響，並依據脆弱度相關研究，彙整脆弱度因子並找出台北市脆弱地區，最後選擇以萬華區作為實證研究範圍，透過心理量表問卷調查瞭解居民對於洪水災害的認知程度，並以結構方程模式探討「風險認知」、「危險感知」、「政府信任度」、「消息信任度」及「防災行為」之關聯性與影響因素；另外進而比較空間上不同的脆弱度其風險認知與防災行為影響要素之差異性。最後研究發現「風險認知」與「危險感知」對於防災行為具有顯著差異性；且不同脆弱度地區，其「風險認知」、「政府信任度」、「消息信任度」與「配合意願」之影響因子具有差異性，高脆弱地區重視鄰里朋友之間的情感與協助，且其對於政府的信任度取決於災後安置收容與復原能力，並且願意支出相關防災措施上的費用；而低脆弱地區的災害資訊消息來源為大眾傳播媒體，對於政府在緊急應變與疏散避難的決策能力更為重視。故後續將根據上述影響因子提出改善與降低洪災風險的相關策略與建議，供相關研究、規劃單位或政府機關等決策者作為風險決策參考，以有效降低洪水災害造成的損失與傷害。 The global warming issue has caused the climate changes and increasing the number of frequency of extreme weather events, especially the typhoon, heavy precipitation caused the sever flooding in Taiwan. Therefore, under the highly uncertain risk, people need to have the knowledge and cognition about the risk, in order to reduce the loss, which caused by the disaster. This study reviewed the literatures about the impacts of climate change and the vulnerability research to identify the vulnerability areas of Taipei. Wanhua district was selected based on the vulnerability analysis, and the risk cognition survey was conducted there to collect the data, such as, risk cognition, risk perception, the degree of confidence in government, the degree of confidence in information, and the behavior of disaster prevention. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to analyze the relationship between these factors. Moreover, this study also compared the difference between the risk cognition, risk perception, and the behavior of disaster prevention in the different level of vulnerability areas. In the results, we found that the high risk cognition or perception people usually will have more actions to prevent the disaster. The residents in the higher vulnerability area rely on the neighbors and friends supporting more than the other area. They also would like to pay more money for preventing the disaster. The residents in the low vulnerability area would pay more attention on the mass media. The government can propose better strategies for preventing disaster based on these results to reduce the cost and damage of flooding.
顯示於類別:	[都市計劃與開發管理學系所] 博碩士論文

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