| 摘要: | 海峽兩岸在二十一世紀初同時邁入高速鐵路時代，兩者的長度與規模不同，卻都引起舉世關注與稱羨。原因在於台灣高鐵係目前全球唯一採取以民間投資興建和營運的BOT模式執行，而大陸則係以跨越式發展模式在短短數年完成逾萬公里的高鐵。然彼等發展過程中卻出現某些爭議和問題，事實真相為何與該如何解決，確實值得研究探討。
台灣高鐵構想始自1973年台鐵局的超級鐵路計畫，1992年行政院核定高鐵路線後，其徵地特別預算卻於1993年遭立法院全數刪除，並決議要求民間投資興建。台灣高鐵改採BOT模式於2000年起興建，2007年營運，過程可謂曲折多變。台灣高鐵雖係政府重大交通政策，但三十餘年來經歷了多位行政院長和交通部長，其財務困窘問題迄今未解。
大陸高鐵構想始自1990年中共鐵道部的京滬高速鐵路線路方案，鐵道部自1996年起以十年時間自主研製電動機車和實施六次提速，然國務院於2004年決定建設四縱四橫高鐵後，鐵道部改採以市場換技術模式引進高速列車後，高鐵建設突飛猛進。但2011年發生動車追撞事故和鐵道部官員涉貪事件，使鐵道部於2013年遭裁撤、改隸交通運輸部。
本文以艾利森的政府決策模型中的理性行為者、組織過程/行為以及政府/官僚政治模型，研究兩岸的高鐵發展過程中，何者居關鍵地位。本研究顯示，兩岸的高鐵發展過程均深受國內外政治經濟情勢影響。而兩岸高鐵的規劃研究、政策發展與執行過程，都顯示組織過程/行為決策模式扮演了專業重要角色。而兩岸政府領導人以有限理性做出高鐵決策，彼等功過有待長期觀察。台灣由於需經立法院審查預算與介入，使台灣高鐵受政府/官僚政治決策模型影響較之大陸高鐵複雜多變。
In the 21st Century, both Taiwan and China have entered into a new era of high-speed rail. Although the length of the line, the construction and the operation schemes are different, both projects have drawn the world’s attention. Taiwan High-Speed Rail Project was the only and largest privately funded Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) project in the world, and China, with leaping development within several years, has the world's longest HSR network with about 9,300km (5,800miles) routes in service. Coincidentally, both governments of Taiwan and Mainland China face tremendous financial challenges which require their leaders’ wisdom to solve the problems.
The idea of a Taiwan’s high-speed rail arose in 1973, and the project and the line of THSR was approved by the Executive Yuan of Taiwan's government in 1992. However, the budget allocated to the HSR Project was completely withdrawn by the Legislative Yuan in 1993. Later the government decided to have the HSR Project constructed and operated under a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model. Finally, Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation (THSRC) has won the bid and this important policy was implemented, a high-speed-rail line was built in 2000, and launched its service in 2007.
After operating two and a half years, THSRC had funded by private means was seeking assistance from the government because of such problems as high interest rates, high depreciation and lower ridership than its original projection. For the past 34 years, the Project of THSR has been handled consecutively by 11 Premiers and 11 Ministers of MOTC, which means that the Project has been consistently planned and acted in the Executive Yuan , but postponed by the Legislative Yuan because of some lawmakers thoughts the budget of THSR was too high to take.
Comparatively, A proposal named “the Plan of Passengers Dedicated Line” to build a high speed railway between Beijing and Shanghai was submitted by the Ministry of Railways (MOR) in 1990. The MOR began introducing its electrified trains in 1996, but it was not successful. However, after all the experiments, they had a leaping development in 2003. In 2004, the State Council had decided to launch the construction of “The Four North-South and Four East-West High-Speed Railway Network”, and in 2011 the Beijing–Shanghai high-speed railway began its service. Due to the financial crisis caused by skyrocketing debt, the MOR was announced to be dissolved and its duties were taken up by the Ministry of Transport in 2013. For the past 22 years, the Project was handled by 3 Premiers and 4 Ministers of MOR.
In summary, the study indicated that the decision-making processes of high-speed-rail in Taiwan and Mainland China had deeply influenced by its domestic politics, and economy. With the models of Graham T. Allison, this study uses Allison’s "Rational Actor Model", "Organizational Process/Behavior Model", and "Governmental/Bureaucratic Politics Model" three models to analyze the main concerns of both governments’ decision-making process for high speed rail. The study shows that both sides’ leaders are rational actors, and the Organizational Behavior model plays a critical role in planning, developing and implementing policies. With regard to the Governmental Politics model, it shows that due to the legislature’s audit and involvement, the decision-making process for high-speed rail project in Taiwan is much more complex than that in China. |
