本研究主要之目的在於探討與台灣最主要之出口國中國大陸與匯率波動、相對價格及實質所得在簽訂ECFA前後，價格及所得和匯率等變數間的關聯性，先對資料是否為定態做檢定。再進行單根檢定判斷序列資料是否具有定態特性，若為非定態則將資料差分。再建立向量自我回歸模型檢定選取最適落後期數檢定做出動態貿易模型來判斷結果。研究結果顯示，台幣對人民幣之匯率為負向且不顯著影響台灣對中國之貿易額，台灣對中國的相對物價為正向且不顯著影響台灣對中國之貿易額，中國大陸國民所得為正向且顯著影響台灣對中國之貿易額，ECFA對塑膠機械出口額為正向且顯著影響台灣對中國之貿易額。
The purpose of this study is to explore the most important exporter in Taiwan and China exchange rate fluctuations, the relative prices and real income before and after the signing of ECFA, prices and exchange rates and the resulting correlation, whether the information is given on the first state to do. Then serial data unit root tests determine whether the steady state characteristics, if the data will be differential. Then create a vector auto regression model verification tests to make selecting the optimal lag length dynamic business models to determine the results.The results show that the exchange rate is negative and does not significantly affect the trade between Taiwan and China. Chinese relative prices is positive and does not significantly affect the trade between China Taiwan, mainland China income is positive and significant impact on China's trade in Taiwan, ECFA plastics machinery exports is positive and significant impact trade in Taiwan.
