蘋果公司2010年1月27日推出平板電腦iPad，掀起了一波科技產品的新革命。在產品需求量大增，蘋果公司將大部分零件交由台灣相關廠商製造與組裝，影響台灣代工蘋果iPad廠商的營收與股價。所以本研究將探討台灣代工蘋果iPad廠商股價指數與相關類股價之間的連動關係。本研究對於蘋果公司產品iPad 、iPad2、New iPad、iPad mini在台灣的39家代工廠商的股價日資料編製出一個台灣代工蘋果iPad廠商股價指數，和台灣電子類股價指數與蘋果公司股價做連動性的檢驗，利用了包括共整合檢定、向量自我回歸模型(VAR模型)檢定及因果關係檢定，檢定其序列間是否有領先與落後關係。本研究觀察日從 iPad 在美國公開發表日，即2010年11月27日起至2013年1月31日止。經共整合檢定後發現三序列包括台灣代工蘋果iPad廠商股價指數，和台灣電子類股價指數以及和蘋果公司股價不存在任何共整合向量，顯示出序列間不具有長期均衡的關係。而後將序列轉成定態序列，利用向量自我回歸模型及因果關係檢定，檢定出台灣代工蘋果iPad廠商股價指數和台灣電子類股價指數領先蘋果公司股價。
Apple Inc. announced new iPad, a touchscreen tablet, in 27 Jan 2010. This product made a revolutionary change in technology world as well as attracted many consumers. In order to meet the soaring demand of Apple’s products,the operating revenue of Tai-wed OEM increeased. The stock price of Taiwan OEM may be impacted by the Apple orders.Therefore, this study will investigate the relationship among Taiwan OEM index, Apple Inc. stock price,and Taiwan industrial index.
In this study, we used daily data of Apple Inc. stock price, Taiwan electronic indus-try index and Taiwan OEM index which are composed by 39 manufacturers of which supplying parts to Apple’s chain for new product line of iPad. The methodology of this study include unit root test, co-integration test, vector auto regression (VAR model) and Granger causality test to examine leading and lagging relation between above mentioned three indices.
The observation period is from 17 Nov 2010 to 31 Jan 2013 including 723 daily data. The co-integration test result shows there are no vector co-integration series and no equilibrium relationship in the long run. After using 1st difference in unit root test to turn the data to be stable, VAR and Causality test are applied to find out lead lag rela-tionship. The results show that OEM index and Taiwan Electronic industry index are leading to Apple Inc. stock price.
