GDP、出口與能源消耗之間的因果關係－以德國、法國和英國為例

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Title:	GDP、出口與能源消耗之間的因果關係－以德國、法國和英國為例 The Granger Causality Relationship between GDP, Exports and Energy Consumption－Evidence from Germany, France and United Kingdom
Authors:	黃惠君 Huang, Hui-Chun
Contributors:	國際貿易學系
Keywords:	GDP 出口能源消耗 Granger因果關係檢定 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Exports Energy Consumption Granger Causality Test
Date:	2013-06
Issue Date:	2013-10-31 14:16:18 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究選定德國、法國和英國作為研究對象，期間自1970至2011年，探究GDP、出口與能源消耗三變數之間的因果關係。結果顯示，德國在「出口對能源消耗」存在單向的負向因果關係；法國在「出口對能源消耗」存在單向的正向因果關係；英國在「出口對GDP」存在單向的正向因果關係，在「GDP對能源消耗」存在單向的負向因果關係。在政策建議上，德國政府應鼓勵廠商生產製造低耗能高產值之產品出口，並降低企業的租稅負擔。法國建議應提升高出口產品的能源使用效率，或者生產低耗能高產值的產品出口，如此則可提高出口產值而不會增加能源消耗。英國政府應鼓勵廠商出口，提供出口產業租稅誘因以擴大經濟規模和提高出口，並繼續鼓勵國內產業以服務業為導向以減少能源消耗。 This study selected Germany, France and the United Kingdom for the period of 1970-2011. The time series are used to investigate the causality between gross domestic product (GDP), export and energy consumption. Unit Roots Test, Co-integration Test, Granger Causality Test are applied. The empirical results in Germany and France indicated the existing of unidirectional causality running from export to energy consumption. The government may encourage manufacturers to produce the low-energy with high-value exports. On the other hands, the United Kingdom has the unidirectional causality running from export to GDP and from GDP to energy consumption. The government should support manufacturers to export, provide tax incentives for export industries to expand and improve the export economies of scale. Also, at the same time, the domestic industries should be continually encouraged for service-oriented industries to reduce energy consumption.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of International Trade 7 Graduate Institute of International Trade ] Thesis

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