| 摘要: | 本研究主要利用會計資訊(Accounting Data)變數、統計科學方法建構公司(尤其是電子產業)之信用風險模型(Credit Risk Models)，考慮當公司負債比率(Debt Ratio)＞50%，找出影響公司績效之顯著變數；進一步降低銀行授信之風險性資產(Risky Assets)，提高銀行之資本適足率(BIS Capital Adequacy Ratio)，達到事前授信審核之預警與風險管理之效。
實證分析上，利用常態性檢定(K-S test)、平均數檢定(M-U test)、皮爾森(Pearson)相關檢定、建立Logistic迴歸模型一(Regression Models I)，進一步做同變數比較建立複迴歸模型二(Regression Models II)。資料選取自臺灣經濟新報(TEJ)之上市電子股，2001年至2012年發生信用風險公司與財務正常公司合計208家。
實證結果發現，電子產業宜提高利息保障倍數、固定資產週轉率、每股現金流量、避免更換會計師，可增強公司償債能力、經營能力、現金流量與公司治理能力；提高固定資產週轉率、現金流量允當比率、稅前淨利率，可增強公司經營與獲利能力；重視會計師保留意見，可增強公司治理能力。因此，實證價值與管理涵義，公司避免更換會計師、重視外部人會計師(Outsider CPAs)意見，外部監控(Outside Monitoring)與公司治理能力增強，降低信用風險發生的可能性，提高公司績效；進一步可降低銀行授信之風險性資產，提高銀行之資本適足率(BIS Capital Adequacy Ratio)。
The author primarily uses accounting data and statistical methods to establish credit risk model in electronic companies, hoping to offer methods to financial institutes before make loans. Using this model to reduce banking risky assets and enhance BIS capital adequacy ratio, which given that the Taiwanese electronic companies debt ratio＞50%. Empirical analysis, this paper uses K-S test, M-U test and Pearson analysis to establish logistic regression model. Accounting data were selected from TEJ data base. To sum up, there are 208 companies to be employed. Finding, Electronic companies raise the times interest earned, the fixed asset turnover, the cash flow per share and avoid switch of CPAs, it will enhance the solvency indicators, the operating performance indicators, the cash flow indicators and governance indicators. Raise the cash flow adequacy ratio, the ROS, all can enhance the operating performance indicators and the profitability indicators. Respect CPA give a qualified audit opinion, these can enhance corporate governance ability. Implications, avoid switch of CPAs, respect outsider CPAs give a qualified audit opinion, all can improve the outside monitoring and corporate governance and reduce credit risk, these will take good effect on corporate performance, and reduce banking risky assets and enhance BIS capital adequacy ratio in the financial institutions. |
