| 摘要: | 法院強制執行拍賣的不動產房舍即是俗稱的「法拍屋」，主要是由於債務人房屋貸款繳息異常，致使銀行將案件送至法院進行查封而拍賣，而一般民眾則有機會藉此標得低於一般市場行情的房地產，於是近年來興起一陣法拍屋投資風潮。然法拍屋中有諸多資訊，例如建坪、地坪、區位、樓層、總底價、點交與否、拍次、競標人數等等，本研究以特徵價格理論，將可參考的資訊數據歸納影響因素，建立法拍屋拍定價格特徵價格模型，以供投資人對拍定價格訂定的參考。
由前所述，本研究提出三點研究目的：1.探討法拍屋拍定價格與市場成交價格之相關性及影響程度。2.利用特徵價格理論，分析法拍屋拍定價格影響因素，建立法拍屋特徵價格模型，以作為競標者評估法拍價格之參考。3.利用因素分析作維度縮減，將眾多法拍屋影響因素濃縮簡化歸納，提出主成分相關性因素，減少變數個數，避免資訊重疊，以新的解釋面向，作為競標者評量法拍案件之參考。
故本研究主要在探討不同因素對法拍屋拍定價格所產生的影響，研究以臺北市12行政區為例，在96年10月1日至98年3月31日期間，挑選其中二樓（含）以上、20坪〜50坪之中小型住宅法拍屋為研究對象。先於第一章說明研究動機及目的。第二章回顧國內外相關的文獻，探討拍賣制度、法拍不動產流程、影響住宅房屋及法拍屋價格因素。第三章則依據文獻探討的資料決定本研究所適用的研究方法，並說明研究假說、資料的取得、期間、地區、對象、變數選取、定義及模型設計。
進行實證部分，於第四章先將法拍屋與成屋市場進行比較，再對法拍屋資料依所設計之模型逐一代入，探討法拍屋拍定價格與點交與否、競標人數、總底價、拍次、所在樓層、總樓層、持分建坪、持分地坪、公告現值、市區、舊市區、郊區、景氣對策信號(分數)之關係，建立特徵價格模型。接著以因素分析，將13項特徵變數濃縮成5個因素，以更簡潔的方式解釋法拍屋拍定價格。
最後本研究於第五章提出三項結論：1. 法拍屋均低於市價，且受景氣影響變動較大；另景氣較差時，法拍數量反而減少。2. 建立法拍特徵價格並驗證誤差低於5％。3. 將法拍特徵價格變數之潛在因素濃縮為5項公共因素，且市場因素型態案件居多。
The real estate auction enforced by the court is known as court auction house. Due to the debt abnormity of debtor, the bank has to apply to the court for attachment and auction, so that the public has a chance to bid the real estate at a lower price than that in the open market. Hence, the investment of court auction house is prosperous in recent years. Considering the information of the court auction house such as construction area, land area, district position, storey, upset price, court eviction order, auction number and bidders, this study concludes the influence factors based on the referable information with the method of hedonic price theory and establishes the price model of court auction house as the reference of investors in terms of setting auction price.
According to the above, the study puts forward three research objectives: 1. to explore the correlation and influence degree between auction price of court auction house and transaction price in the open market; 2. to use the hedonic price theory to analyze the factors influencing auction price of court auction house and establish relative price model as the reference of bidders for the evaluation of auction price; 3. to use factor analysis as the dimension reduction and simplify the influence factors of court auction house to raise the major correlated factors and reduce variables so as to avoid information overlapping. It provides the reference of bidders to evaluate the auction price from new explanation aspects.
This study focuses on the influences of different factors on the auction price of court auction house, taking small-and-medium sized court auction house above 2nd floor with 20 tsubo ~50 tsubo from Oct. 1, 2007 to March 31, 2009 in 12 administrative districts in Taipei City as the research subjects. In the first chapter, the study explains research motives and objectives. The second chapter is about literature review at home and abroad and explores auction principles, procedures of real estate auction and factors influencing residence and court auction house. The 3rd chapter proposes the research methods based on the literature review and illustrates research hypothesis, information collection, duration, location, subject, variable selection, definition and model design.
The 4th chapter conducts the empirical discussion which compares the court auction house and finished houses. Then, court auction house information is filled in the design model to explore the relationship of its auction price and court eviction order, bidders, upset price, auction number, specific storey number, total storey number, construction area, land area, present value, downtown, old downtown, suburbs and boom signal (score) to establish the hedonic price model. The factor analysis is conducted to conclude 13 hedonic price variables into 6 factors so as to explain the auction price of court auction house in a simpler way.
At last, the study puts forward three conclusions: 1. court auction house is cheaper than that in the open market and changes greatly with market prosperity. In the recession, auction number is in the decline. 2. The hedonic price has been established. 3. The potential factors of hedonic price variables are integrated into 6 public factors as the reference for the bidders. |
