| 摘要: | 在國際市場與亞洲華人區域經濟崛起之趨勢與高度競爭環境下，專案的運作規模與技術需求俱增，日漸頻繁的各式策略聯盟合作已成為廠商提高生存適性之重要商業模式。而廠商如何挑選合適之聯盟夥伴並圓滿達成價格協議，則是合作廠商之間維持長期良好關係及因應時代趨勢之重要議題。過去雖曾有單獨探討策略聯盟夥伴選擇或議價決策之相關研究，但卻非常少見能有結合策略聯盟夥伴風險考量於議價問題中之整合性決策模式。鑑於實務上常見商業夥伴因為價格協議困難而導致合作破局或不能維持長期合作關係，因此，從實務需求出發，要促成合作廠商雙贏之成功聯盟，有必要結合議價問題與合作風險概念，探索發展出更具整合性之廠商議價決策模式，全面協助廠商在議約前的夥伴選擇、議約中的報價策略、議約後的監控管理及再議約行為。本研究擬結合實務需求與決策理論以建立一套結合動態議價賽局與合作風險考量之整合決策模式以同步支援策略聯盟廠商之夥伴選擇、價格協定、監控管理等等議約行為。除了將運用德菲法及AHP專家問卷以擷取合作專案經理人之議價決策與風險考量因素外，亦將結合賽局理論、模糊理論、效用理論等方法論將實務上經理人決策時之內隱知識邏輯轉換為可量化分析之評估數值，並透過動態議價賽局分析以模擬推算合作案可能之價格區間及均衡解。本計畫之決策模式將可協助廠商依雙方合作條件及預期之合作專案總利益，在議價空間中推算出幾個有用之價格參考點，包含：合作案之底限、可接受報酬、可容許風險之報酬、最可能均衡價格、可能最佳合作報酬等等。廠商除了可盡量在議價過程中維持理性決策並據以擬定合宜之報價策略。同時可支援廠商在議約前之夥伴選擇階段先行評估合作可能利得，以及在議約後監控管理之判斷基準。此外，因本研究將議價問題之模式化，亦能有助於被廠商運用於日後的經驗學習與商業知識傳承。
While the international marketplace is getting open to world-wide participation, the business environment is fiercely competitive and various strategic alliances become critical business solutions to obtain competitive advantages for survival. However, while two profit-oriented companies intend to cooperate and form a strategic alliance for an expected return, it is always a business challenge to reach an agreement in terms of sharing risks and rewards and the bargaining between team members. Although previous studies have tried to partially support the partner selection and bargaining decision in specific strategic alliances, an integrated decision support model as well as a total business solution for strategic partnering and dynamic bargaining applications is very demanding in the real world practices. A three-stage decision supports including partner selection, bargaining strategy, and performance evaluation and renegotiation, is indeed needed to promote a win-win success in strategic alliance applications. In the attempt on supporting the aforementioned three-stage decisions in real world business alliances, the main goal of the proposed research is to develop an integrated game theoretic model for dynamic bargaining applications with strategic partnering and risk assessments. First, based on the considerations of “bargaining power” and “cooperation risk,” this research is designed to discover the bargaining decision factors heuristically anchored in the minds of business managers by Delphi and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) enhanced questionnaire survey. Then, the discovered bargaining decision factors as well as risk considerations will be used to develop the proposed model and examine the equilibrium prices under various conditions. Game theory, fuzzy set theory, and utility theory are used as complementary methodologies for quantitative analysis. It is expected that the research results can provide the rationale of bargaining decisions and assist companies, who intend to form a strategic alliance, to understand their bargaining positions and select a proper bargaining strategy systematically. In addition, the proposed model, which is a structured model, can also enhance the learning of business lessons and knowledge accumulations. |
