GDP、出口與能源消耗間因果關係探討：以台灣與韓國為例

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Title:	GDP、出口與能源消耗間因果關係探討：以台灣與韓國為例
Authors:	郭正傑
Contributors:	國際貿易學系
Keywords:	GDP gross domestic product 出口 exports 能源消耗 energy consumption Granger因果關係檢定 Granger causality test
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2012-11-06 09:11:45 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究以時間序列分析台灣及韓國在1971至2010年GDP、出口及能源消耗三變數間的因果關係，運用單根檢定、共整合與Granger因果關係檢定得到實證結果為台灣在「GDP對出口」存在單向因果關係，「能源消耗對出口」存在單向因果關係，「GDP對能源消耗」存在雙向因果關係；在韓國亦可發現「出口對GDP」存在單向因果關係，「能源消耗對出口」存在單向因果關係。從研究結果建議政府應多使用有效率的能源及開發替代能源等政策，如此在台灣不僅能降低污染還能推動經濟及出口的成長，而在韓國亦有相同效果，從能源消耗帶起出口的增加，將也同時促進經濟成長。 This paper applies time series to investigate the casuality between GDP, export and energy consumption in Taiwan and Korea for the period between 1971-2010. Unit Roots Test, Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test are applied. The empirical results indicate that there exist unidirectional causality running from GDP to exports and energy consumption to exports. Moreover, bi-directional causality between GDP and energy consumption has been found. It also finds that Korea shows unidirectional causality running from exports to GDP and energy consumption to exports. The finding suggests that government may develop renewable energy and improve of efficient energy as strategy.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of International Trade 7 Graduate Institute of International Trade ] Thesis

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