本研究的目的在建立國家級與國際級羽球男子雙打競賽勝負評估的預測公式。採用電腦標記分析法分析2003年至2005年全國排名賽前四強以及國際賽前八強的26場競賽影片，所得資料以逐步多元迴歸分析進行統計考驗。在本研究範圍所獲得的結果為：1.國家級羽球男雙競賽獲勝率的標準化迴歸公式為：0.389×第二拍效果＋0.351×第一拍效果＋0.215×防壓效果。2.國際級羽球男雙競賽獲勝率的標準化迴歸公式為：0.38×第四拍效果＋0.38×第三拍效果；由此可知，國家級男雙競賽影響勝負的最重要變項為第二拍接發球的表現；國際級男雙競賽影響勝負的最重要變項則為接發球後次一拍（第四拍）的技能表現。本研究根據研究結果提出建議，以供羽球訓練及未來研究之參考。
The purpose of this study was to establish a regression formula to evaluate the victory or defeat in national and international men's double badminton competitions. A total of 26 matches including the matches from the quarter-finals of international tournament and the semi-finals of national tournament from 2003-2005 were video taped. The videotapes were then notated frame by frame to analysis the players' strokes through computerized notational analysis. Stepwise regression method were used for analysis. The results showed that the formulas can efficiently calculate winning rate were as below: (1) For national man's doubles: V=.389×the effect of "second shots" +.351×the effect of "first shots" +.215×the effect of "defensive shots". (2) For international man's doubles: Y=.38×the effect of "fourth shots" +.38×the effect of "third shots" The variable that discriminate between the winning and losing in national male player's matches was the effectiveness of "second shot". The effectiveness of "fourth shot" was the most discriminate between the winning and losing in international male player's matches. Based on the finding in this research, suggestions for badminton players' training and further studies were proposed.
