| 摘要: | 台灣的自然環境在先天上就易肇致土石流的發生，近年來隨著經濟快速發展，對於土地資源之需求更加迫切，山坡地開發成為必然的趨勢。近年來災害日益增加，各種自然災害中以山區土石流的發生最為頻繁，使得土石流災害事件有逐漸增多的趨勢。為了避免或減少土石流所造成的災害，首先必須做土石流潛勢分析，瞭解土石流可能發生的地點及其危險程度。
本研究透過文獻回顧法、空間統計分析、Model Builder等方法為理論依據。透過新店區各項基本資料運用於地理資訊系統做全面性彙整，以利進行新店區土石流災害潛勢因子的危險度及建物、道路和人口的脆弱度評估之研究。以地理資訊系統(GIS)作為資料庫建置平台及資料庫管理系統，進行土石流危險因子空間資料、屬性資料的彙整。以Model Builder將環境潛勢模組、實質環境模組和社會經濟模組這三類模組，再以流程圖的方式將整個工作流程顯現並建立一自動化的操作流程。最後，進而對於土石流災害風險與脆弱度分析探討。
根據分析結果可得知，在建物脆弱度方面，建物脆弱度最高為達觀里，其風險建物面積為1.67ha。而雙城里次之其風險建物面積為1.38ha，日興里風險建物面積則為1.28ha。在防救災道路脆弱度方面，可得知當土石流發生時為緊急道路的北宜路、消防救災道路的安康路三段和避難疏散道路之雙峰路段，這些路段具有面臨土石流發生時崩塌堵塞道路的風險。在社會經濟脆弱度方面，可得知即為幼年脆弱人口和老年脆弱人口均低於一千人以下。因此可推斷新店區山坡地地區其脆弱度數值相對較高於市區，而未有土石流災害風險的里為主要分佈在市區的四十一個里。透過此三大面向脆弱度之呈現，得以運用不同角度面向進行土石流災害風險之探討，並充分反映都市實質環境現況，使整體脆弱度評估成果極具參考價值，並可作為相關防救災計畫擬定之參考依據。
經由Model builder自動化模組，與傳統一般透過手動的操作模式比較，可得知使用Model builder自動化模組可以達到事半功倍的效用，不僅其耗費的時間較少，而費用也比手動操作來的低；而傳統的手動操作的方式不論在時間和花費上都比Model builder自動化模組來的多，且效益低。
Taiwan's natural environment is prone to debris flow. As economic develop, the needs for land resources became more urgent, thus hillside development has become an inevitable trend. In recent years, the occurrence of natural disasters and especially of landslides in the mountain areas has increased. In order to reduce and prevent disasters caused by landslides, a debris flow analyze must be done to understand the possible locations in risk of debris flow and its level of danger.
This study uses literature of review method, spatial statistical analysis, and Model Builder method as theoretical basis and with the basic information of the store area through the geographic information system, create a comprehensive archive, to facilitate potential debris flow disaster and risk factors Buildings, roads and population vulnerability assessment research.
This research uses the Geographic Information System (GIS) for database management to conduct risk factor for debris flow spatial data, and compile the attribute data. With Model Builder module of environmental potential, physical environment and socio-economic module these three types of modules, the entire work process is presented through a flow chart and an automatic operation process is established. Once the module has run its course, the debris flow hazard analysis of risk and vulnerability can be condone.
According to the analysis chart, the vulnerability of buildings, the maximum of vulnerability building area is 1.67ha, followed by the risk area 1.38ha, Nikko risk building in the area was 1.28ha. In vulnerability road, it can be seen that debris flow occurs when the Taipei-Ilan road for the emergency road, fire road in the well-being of disaster relief and evacuation evacuation roads Sec bimodal sections, these sections have faced when the debris flow landslide blocked the road risk. In the socio-economic vulnerability, the vulnerability of young and older people vulnerable populations are less than a thousand people. Hillside areas can be inferred therefore store area is relatively high value of its vulnerability in urban areas, and without the risk of debris flow disaster in urban areas are about forty-one Li. Through these three aspects presentation of vulnerability, it can be utilized for different aspects of the debris flow disaster risk, and urban physical environment reflect the current status of the overall vulnerability assessment results of great reference value, and disaster prevention are related development plan.
In addition, to compare with the mode of manual operation and the automated modules that the Model builder can achieve a multiplier effect, it spends less time consuming than the mode of manual operation. It spends more time and money on the mode of manual operation than the Model builder automation module.
Keywords: Debris Flow, New Taipei City Xindian, Disaster Risk, Model Builder |
