| 摘要: | 本研究旨在探討2008北京奧運女子排球致勝因素之分析，其研究的具體目的如下：一、理解前四強隊伍競賽中選手基本身體素質、四項統計數據與比賽勝負之集中與分散情形。二、理解對戰隊伍不同選手基本身體素質對比賽得失分之影響差異分析。三、理解對戰隊伍不同攻擊位置、型態與節奏的扣球次數對比賽得失分之影響差異分析。四、理解對戰隊伍不同攔網形式、發球型態與對方失誤的次數對比賽得失分之影響差異分析。五、探討優勝隊伍在競賽中對優勢策略之致勝因素與本質之間聯繫關係。研究對象以2008北京奧運女子排球賽前四強隊伍。經皮爾遜積差相關法與卡方獨立性考驗等分析考驗北京奧運前四強隊伍的四項得分技術對比賽得失分影響差異分析，並以逐步多元回歸分析探討優勝隊伍在競賽中優勢策略之致勝因素之間聯繫關係，結果發現：
一、前四強不同攻擊位置次數以四號位得分最多共154次；不同攻擊形態以修正攻擊得分最多共96次；不同攔網型式以雙人攔網得分次數最多共41次：不同發球形態次數以肩上漂浮球得分次數最多共16次；不同對方失誤得分以攻擊失誤得分最多共64次。
二、不同選手基本身體素質對比賽得失分之影響差異如下列:1.身高與攻擊得失分、攔網得失分、發球得失分顯示正相關(p＜.05)均達到顯著差異。
三、不同攻擊位置、型態與節奏的扣球次數對比賽得失分之影響差異如下列所示1.前四強從不同攻擊位置較難預測到攻擊得失分的能力達1.7%之多(p＜.05)。2.前四強從不同攻擊型態較難預測到攻擊得失分的能力達5.6%之多(p＜.05)。3. 攻擊節奏與攻擊得失分顯示負相關，與攻擊位置及型態顯示正相關p=.000均達到顯著差異。
四、不同攔網形式、發球型態與對方失誤的次數對比賽得失分之影響差異如下列所示：1.前四強從不同攔網形式較難預測到攔網得失分的能力達0%(p＜.05)。2.前四強從不同發球型態較難預測到發球得失分的能力達0%(p＜.05)。3. 金牌戰巴西與美國從不同對方失誤預測到得失分的能力達7.7%(p＜.05)；銅牌戰中國與古巴不同對方失誤次數與得失分之間是沒有相關聯性存在；準決賽巴西與中國不同對方失誤次數與得失分之間是沒有相關聯性存在；準決賽美國與古巴不同對方失誤次數與得失分間是沒有相關聯性存在。
五、優勝隊伍在競賽中對優勢策略之致勝因素與本質之間聯繫關係有交互作用存在（p＜.05），聯繫關係之解釋力為快（.59）＞全（.53）＞變（.16）＞高（-.10）。排球的致勝因素之間的本質聯繫中，在前四強競賽中「全」與「快」主導了比賽勝負。
This thesis’ purpose is to analyze the Game Theory of 2008 Beijing Olympic Games Women’s Volleyball. The specific purpose of this study is: I. to comprehend that how players’ basic physical fitness & four term statistical data affect success & failure in Quarter-Final. II. To understand how players’ basic physical fitness affect scoring with different competitors. III. To know how different positions, types, frequencies, and competitors’ rhythm & frequencies of spiking affect scoring. IV. To find out how different types & frequencies of blocking & serving and how numbers of errors affect scoring. V. To find out how winner’s Game Theory connect to their advantages in Quarter-Final. In this thesis, we take 2008 Beijing Olympic Games Women’s Volleyball team of Quarter-Final as object of research to analyze how four terms of scoring skills affect scoring through Pearson Product-Moment Correlation & Chi-Square Test of Independence, and to find out the connection between winner teams’ advantages by Multiple Regression Analysis, discovered:
I. According to different frequencies of spiking positions, ace spiker got most points as 154 times in Quarter-Final; in different types of spiking, the hard spiking got most scores as 96 times; in different types of blocking, double blocking got most scores as 41 times; in different types of serving, overhand floating service got most scores as 16 times; in different types of errors of competitors, errors of spiking lost most scores as 64 times. II. The height demonstrates positive correlation (p＜.05) with scoring of spiking, blocking, and serving, and reach significant difference. III. 1.The top four positions from different attacks harder to predict the ability to attack Scoring 1.7% more (p <.05). 2. The top four from different types of attacks harder to predict the ability to attack Scoring 5.6% more (p <.05). 3. Attack Scoring rhythm and attack shows negative correlation with the location and pattern of attacks shows a positive correlation p =. 000 have reached a significant difference. IV. 1.The top four from various forms of block is difficult to predict the capacity of sub-block gain and loss 0% (p <.05). 2. The top four from different types of less predictable serve Scoring ability to serve up to 0% (p <.05). 3. The gold medal fight in Brazil and the United States Failure to predict from the other pros and cons of different points of the capacity of 7.7% (p <.05); bronze war between China and Cuba, the number of different mistakes and the other is not between gains and losses associated with sub-existence; semi-finals Brazil and China different from each other between the turnovers and loss is not associated with sub-existence; semi-final the other mistakes the United States and Cuba, the number of different and not between gains and losses associated with sub-existence. V. Winning teams in the race strategy of the dominant nature of success factors and there are interactions between the contact relationship (p <.05), contact between the explanatory power of the fast (1.53)> whole (.53)> Variable ( .16)> high (-. 10). Volleyball essential relationship between the success factors, the first semi-finals of the competition "all" and "fast" dominated the game winner. |
