以灰色理論模式預測我國職業災害保險給付之研究

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題名:	以灰色理論模式預測我國職業災害保險給付之研究
作者:	李姿瑩
貢獻者:	勞動學研究所
關鍵詞:	灰色預測 GM(1,1)預測模型職業災害職業災害勞保給付
日期:	2010
上傳時間:	2011-10-24 14:52:57 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本研究依據勞保局之「歷年職業災害勞保給付統計年報」資料，應用灰系統理論之灰色預測GM(1,1)模式，期望建立一能準確預測我國勞保職災給付之預測模式。職業災害保險總給付及傷病給付無論人次、千人率，五期至十一期的滾動建模均得到非常好的預測結果。職業災害失能給付及死亡給付的人次、千人率的灰色預測準確性雖較總給付及傷病給付的結果差，但大致而言，低於九期之數據預測結果仍在合格範圍。職業災害保險給付金額預測結果，總給付及失能給付金額之五期至十期的滾動建模可得到較好的預測結果，傷病給付金額則於五期至九期得到相當良好的預測效果，而死亡給付金額在十五期之前的預測結果屬勉強範圍。醫療給付金額則因平均殘差過大，預測效果並不理想。本研究各項模型建立，除了醫療給付金額外，大致而言以七期至九期的精確度較高，其預測精確度均大於90％以上。以本研究之預測模型預測各職業災害保險給付趨勢，在人次的預測上，總給付及傷病給付為上升趨勢，失能給付及死亡給付則為下降；千人率部分，總給付、失能給付及死亡給付呈現下降趨勢，只有傷病給付有上升情形；另外金額部分，總給付、傷病給付呈現上升情形，失能、死亡給付則呈現下降情形。 This study applied GM(1,1) model of grey system theory to establish a forecasting model of the labor insurance payment of occupational accidents in Taiwan based on the annual statistics of Bureau of Labor Insurance. For the total benefit payment and the benefit payment on injuries or illness, both the number of people and the ratio per thousandth represent excellent results in the rolling forecast modeling on 5 to 11 periods. As to the benefit payment on disability and death, the accuracies of grey prediction on the number of people and the ratio per thousandth are generally acceptable on less than 9 periods. With regard to the forecast of the insurance benefit amount of occupational accidents, the total payment and disability payment have better results on 5 to 10 periods. The injuries or illness payment show excellent results on 5 to 9 periods. At the same time, the death payment has barely acceptable results on less than 15 periods. However, the medical payment doesn’t have expected results due to the huge residual. In this study, each forecasting model, except for the benefit amount of medical payments, is more accurate on 7 to 9 period with greater than 90％ rate of accuracy. Predicting the trend of insurance payment of occupational accidents, the number of people is increasing on the total payment and injuries or illness payment, on the contrary, the payment of disability and death decrease. The ratio per thousandth is going down on the total payment, disability and death payment, and rising on the injuries or illness payment. Finally, the insurance benefit amount is rising on the total payment and injuries or illness payment, and descending on the payment of disability and death.
顯示於類別:	[勞動暨人力資源學系碩士班] 博碩士論文

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