在跨政府氣候變遷小組（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）於2001 與2007 年提出第三次（Third Assessment Report, TAR）與第四次（Assessment Report 4, AR4）全球氣候變遷評估報告後，引導了近十年來國內外氣候變遷的衝擊研究。此外， 在全球環境變遷人文面向研究（International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, IHDP）的提倡下，地景變遷與社經代謝作用（社會經濟系統的資 源消耗、資產累積與廢棄物排放）之探討亦逐漸受到重視，然而，全球氣候變遷與空間 政策對於地景變遷與社經代謝作用可能造成之衝擊仍未被清楚探討。因此，本計畫中以 近年來受到空間發展政策顯著影響的台北縣淡水鎮為研究對象，並以空間系統模擬方法 建構「淡水鎮空間系統模型」，配合空間政策與IPCC 台灣地區降尺度之氣候變遷模擬資 料進行情境模擬，以探討淡水鎮在全球氣候變遷的趨勢以及空間發展政策的推動下，可 能造成之地景變遷與社經代謝作用衝擊及其在空間型態上之改變，作為未來全球氣候變 遷調適與減緩策略研擬之參考。其中，空間系統模型的開發以系統階層性的概念加以改 良，並嘗試與行為者（agents）決策加以整合，以提高空間系統模型之正確性 （certification）。
Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) completed the Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Assessment Report 4 (AR4) in 2001 and 2007, impact research of global climate change were broadly proceed based on the simulation result in TAR and AR4. In decade, the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change ( IHDP) stimulates the exploration for the relation between landscape change and socio-economic metabolism. However, impact analyses of global climate change and spatial policies on the spatial patterns of landscape change and socio-economic metabolism are still absent. Therefore, spatial system modeling is adopted in this research to analyze the spatial impact on landscape change and socio-economic metabolism based on the scenario analysis, which combine the assumption of spatial policies and the downscale climate forecast data based on the IPCC’s simulation. To enhance the certification of the spatial system model developed in this project, we bring spatial policies into the model by considering the agents’ decision making process and improve the model design process according to the concept of system hierarchy.
